Tuesday 12 November 2019

Nigel Farage should step down full stop!

Everybody is talking about Nigel Farage. While I'm sure this makes the leader of the Brexit Party very happy, his announcement about withdrawing candidates from Tory seats won in 2017 has put the cat among the pigeons. It sounded like good news for Boris because it means that in Tory majority and marginal constituencies, Conservative candidates will not have to fight for votes with the Brexit Party and should therefore manage to hold on to their seats, all vital if the prime minister is to stay in power with a decent working majority. But now some Tories are saying Farage must go a step further and stand his candidates down in Labour marginal constituencies. This is because if Boris is to get a proper majority in parliament, the Tories must win as many Labour marginal seats as possible and they might not be able to do that if a bunch of Brexit Party madcap Brexiteers who want to crash out of the EU with no deal are clogging up the doorsteps and selling the Farage vision to disillusioned electors. So, pleae, Mr Farage, these Tories are saying, we don't want your candidates in any Tory-held seats OR Labour marginal seats. There are enough Labour marginals to make a big difference to the numbers game, such as Kensington in west London where Labour has a majority of only 20, and Crewe and Nantwich, a Labour majority of 48. Farage has said absolutely not. But what if Labour hangs on to all its marginal seats as a result of Brexit Party successes cutting into the Tory voters? And it ends up with Jeremy Corbyn in power and either a much softer Brexit deal under a Labour government or a second referendum which leads to a reversal of the 2016 vote and a decision to stay in the EU. Farage would be blamed for keeping the UK in the EU AND bringing Corbyn to Number 10. Could he ever live that down? If Farage wants, above all else, for the UK to leave the EU, then he should do everything in his power to keep Boris in Number 10. The only way to do that is for Farage to scrap the Brexit Party, withdraw all its candidates, resign and go and live somewhere far from Westminster and take up pig farming or whatever. But I guess he is not going to do that. He will feel he has already made the big gesture by removing his candidates from Tory-held seats, and he wants Brexit Party representation in the House of Commons, although, weirdly, he himself isn't standing. He has lost so many times he can't face further humiliation. So he will pursue his policy of having candidates standing in all other seats and screw the consequences. My feeling, based on nothing in particular, except gut instinct, is that Farage and the Brexit Party will fail catastrophically. Boris has got a Brexit deal which the EU has approved, and I really don't believe there can be many voters who would prefer to throw Boris's deal out of the window and opt for the crash-out option. So Leavers, whether Farage supporters or not, will vote for Boris. They won't vote for Labour because Corbyn can't be trusted to stick to the 2016 referendum mandate. They won't vote for the Liberal Democrats because they want to remain in the EU. So Leavers, and Remainers who have resigned themselves to exiting the EU but with a deal, will reject Labour and Farage and the Lib Dems. Farage has made his gesture and will be crushed. Labour will hang on to some of its marginal seats, such as Bury North where there is an excellent young MP, James Frith, but will not win a majority of any kind. The Lib Dems will damage the Tory majority by winning several marginal seats. But Boris will scrape in with a small majority. Voila!

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