Tuesday 5 November 2019

Jo Swinson Lib Dem leader, saviour or fantasist?

I would love to think that Jo Swinson, the young leader of the Liberal Democrats, could win the December 12 election and march us all back into the European Union like happy campers and forget the whole Brexit thing ever happened. But to do that she would have to see such a massive and historically unprecedented swing towards her party that it seems far-fetched, inconceivable and close to fantasy land. Even if her party were to win, say, 100 seats, she would still not be prime minister. That role, unavoidably, has to go to the leader of either the Conservatives or Labour, Boris or Corbyn. That's the way it goes. We are effectively a two-party state. Cameron and Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg joined together in a coalition in 2010 but from that exeperience I suspect neither of the two big parties would want to contemplate such a marriage ever again. It proved disastrous and pointless and undermining. So what's the point of voting for Jo Swinson? Is a protest vote by EU Remainers for the Lib Dems responsible at a time when we need firm decisions about our country's future, no more dither and confusion? Well, it's for this very reason that I think a vote for Jo is actually a good one. She is the only leader who has come out and said categorically that she hates the idea of the UK leaving the EU and will revoke Article 50 on her first day in office and scrap Brexit. The Conservatives will stick to their Boris deal, and Labour will.....well what will Labour do? No one really knows. Corbyn and co hint at a possible second referendum, with Remain as one option and a Corbyn-inspired deal on the other. But Labour has been a party of such muddle over Brexit that I don't think Corbyn can ever be trusted with taking the UK out of the EU or leaving it in. So Jo's promise to stay in the EU, which I support, has to be a creditable policy, even though it will infuriate the millions who for reasons I never fully understood desperately want to get the hell out of the EU. These anti-EU voters will never vote for Jo. So either they will go for Boris because of his deal or try Corbyn in case he produces a better deal or choose Nigel Farage, the King of Brexiteers. As a result we are heading for a massive split in voting. Jo will probably get her 80-100 seats, the Tories and Labour will lose a pile of seats, the Brexit Party will win a handful and the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party will hold on to their seats. No one will be in charge of anything and Brexit will go on being a mess.

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