Friday 8 November 2019

More confusion over Trump's Syria oil policy

It must be getting increasingly difficult for the Pentagon to explain away Donald Trump's bizarre comment that the US planned to take some of the oil from the wells in northeastern Syria, now being guarded by American troops and Bradley armoured fighting vehicles. Asked by reporters at a Pentagon press briefing whether the US had the legal right to have some of this oil when it belonged to the sovereign country of Syria, the two officials on the podium insisted the revenue from oil sales was all going to fund operations by the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), those lovely allies who were deserted by the US only a few weeks ago when the Turkish army invaded, but are still relied on as valued partners against Isis remnants. The US troops sent to protect the oil wells, reversing Trump's decision to pull them all out and send them home, were primarily deployed to prevent Isis from getting their hands on them. The wells used to churn out 45,000 barrels a day when Isis was in control, worth a daily $1.5 million through the black market. So as soon as the Pentagon reminded Trump of that and warned of the risk of Isis returning to seize the oil wells, he agreed to send 200-300 troops with armoured vehicles to make sure Isis was refused access. More than anything, however, it was guilt that changed Trump's mind. The SDF have been guarding the oil wells ever since Isis was defeated, and after the abandonment of the Kurdish-led fighting alliance, left to fight and be killed by the Turks, the Pentagon has been looking at ways of keeping the partnership going. The oil wells supplied the answer. But the Pentagon still had to answer the key question, was the US going to help itself to the oil revenues as well as the SDF? The Pentagon's chief spokesman, Jonathan Rath Hoffman, and Rear-Admiral William Byrne, vice director of the US Joint Staff, simply avoided giving a direct answer but just stuck to the line that the revenue from the oil would go to the SDF. And never to Isis. But how long is this sustainable? At some point the Syrian government, backed by Moscow, is surely going to say, "Hey, this is our oil, we want it back to help our economy." When Isis controlled the wells, there was a bizarre arrangement under which the jihadists sold the oil to the Syrian regime via middlemen. Damascus thus helped Isis to flourish. The US will never forgive President Bashar Assad for that. But US troops and SDF fighters can't guard the wells for ever. The Turks for a start are going to wake up to the fact that US-protected Syrian oil is being used to fund the very Kurds whom they regard as terrorists. There will come a breaking point when US troops at the oil wells are confronted by either Syrian regime forces or the Russians or Turks. Then what? Admiral Byrne said the US troops would defend themselves against all-comers. I hope the Pentagon and the White House have thought this one through.

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