Tuesday, 10 March 2026
Trump's air war is devastating for Iran but not regime-changing
Bombs from the air are not going to bring about regime-change in Tehran. I thknk that can be safely predicted. The people of Iran might yearn to rise up against the mullahs but for very understandable reasons they are scared to do so. Thousands of families are still mourning the loss of their loved ones in January when the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps opened fire on their own people and killed at least 7,000 and probably many more. Trump claims it's as higb as 30,000. He may be right. What we don't know is how many of the IRGC have been killed in the US/Israeli bomb and missile strikes. But it's a huge organisation and the majority I suspect will survive by the time the bombing stops, so the guards corps will still be functioning to keep the new supreme leader in power and the Iranian people suppressed. What sort of victory will that be for Trump? Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary (war secretary) has claimed today that bombing will go on until the job is done. But what is the job? You can't annihilate a country like Iran into submission? Or can you? I seriously doubt it. The end game is still a confusing mystery.
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