Tuesday, 24 March 2026

It's all about the price of oil

Most things come down to the price of oil. The war between US/Israel and Iran may on the surface be about nuclear weapons and terrorism and suppression of protesters in Tehran and an evil regime. But after three weeks of war it's now principally about the price of a barrel of oil. It can't go on for long being $100-$120 a barrel, because it hits the cost of living around the world and gives Vladimir Putin the last laugh because he is making big profits on the oil he manages to sell to willing importers. So Donald Trump out of the blue announced that talks between the US and Iran had gone so well that the war was about to end. The result was instant. The price of oil dropped. How true Trump's statement was we still don't know because Iran has dismissed it as fake news. As a result the price of oil swung upwards again. Trump probably needed to bide his time for a few days to make sure the Marine reinforcements had arrived and were ready to spring into action, seizing the Kharg Island oil terminal or smashing up the coastline sites where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have their speed boats for attacks on shipping in the Gulf. So, by the end of this week, there will be a resurgence of American firepower hammering Iran, and then the price of oil per barrel will go shooting up. Unless Tehran, hoping to prevent an invasion by US Marines, decides to hold serious talks after all, and then everyone can sleep better at night, and the price of oil will fall dramatically.

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