JD Vance dismisses fear of a wider Middle East war

One assumes the US vice president and everyone else in the Trump administration is getting the same intelligence briefings about what might happen if America attacks Iran. Trump said General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it would be easy, and now JD Vance is dismissing any concern that a strike by American forces would provoke a wider war in the Middle East. Let's hope Vance is right but judging by the bellicose words coming out of Tehran, the ayatollahs are planning for massive retaliation if the US goes ahead with an attack in the next few days or weeks. Well, they would, wouldn't they, and it might be all blather. But the fact is, there has to be a real risk that a strike by the US now might lead to a prolonged military confrontation that could draw in other countries. The last time the US attacked Iran in June last year, Tehran retaliated with hundreds of ballistic missiles aimed at Israel and some against a US base in Qatar. If the US strike is very limited, aimed at persuading Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal, then it might not lead to a wider war. But Trump has amassed such a large armada of warships and bombers in the region that it seems unlikely he has in mind just a token attack. What he says will be limited just means the bombing raids will last for days rather than months. But that could provoke Tehran to respond in a way that would lead to serious escalation. Then everything will get unpredictable.