Monday, 23 February 2026

Can anything stop a Trump attack on Iran?

Normally, in fact always, the US president, current and past, wants to know whether a war, about to be launched, will definitely lead to victory. If the odds are against you, you don't want, as president of the most powerful nation on earth, to contemplate the possibility of defeat or failure. Vietnam has to be the marker for all US presidents. It was a disastrous failure in every possible way. Afghanistan was a failure. Iraq was disastrous but technically not a failure. Venezuela was a success, a huge success, militarily, and so far, diplomatically. A war with Iran has no guarantee of success. Of course, the US will be able to prosecute massive attacks and cause huge damage, and even, possibly, effect a change in leadership in Tehran. But there are no gaurantees it will be a victory for Donald Trump for a number of reasons: even if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme leader, is assassinated/exiled, another Shia cleric will succeed him and carry on the fight. There will be no regime-change as such, unless the US is prepared to send tens of thousands of troops to defeat the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the battlefield. That's not going to happen. So, in fact, what a US military strike from the air and from warships will do is cause a lot of destruction and probably many deaths but with the Tehran regim, albeit with different people, still in business and still hoping one day to develop a nuclear bomb. They have the scientists and engineers to do it. Iran also has the backing of Russia and China, so Tehran won't be isolated. So, if there is no guarantee of victory, why will Trump go ahead? Probably because he thinks he WILL succeed. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER IN PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

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