Saturday, 15 November 2025

What next if Putin seizes Pokrovsk?

There are two theories about Putin and Ukraine if Russian troops seize the key city of Pokrovsk: either the Russian president will just continue fighting to try and grab more and more territory, or he will use the defeat of Pokrovsk to lure Trump back onto his side and force Kyiv to agree a settlement. It could go either way. But there must come a point when Putin realises he is losing more than he is gaining. Yes, victory at Pokrovsk in the Donetsk province in eastern Ukraine would be a blow to Kyiv and a big achievement for Moscow. But Putin is now facing major pressure with the Russian economy. Trump's oil sanctions are beginning to have an affect and the likely seizure of Pokrovsk has only been possible at a cost of thousands of casualties. The death and injuries toll on the Russian side is now so huge that no one knows for sure what the total casualty figures are. So, with the economy under pressure, and casualties rising every week, Putin will be considering the right moment to get Trump back on board. Victory on the battlefield will give him the leverage he needs to persuade Trump, and President Zelensky, to agree a settlement that will satisfy him. There will have to be a deal at some point but having angered Trump over his refusal to agree any sort of compromise or ceasefire, Putin must be realising that Trump is the key to getting his way over Kyiv. So if Pokrovsk falls to the Russians, let's see how long it takes for Putin to make the call to the White House.

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