What is Trump really up to in Venezuela?

Venezuela has been on tenterhooks for weeks, waiting as the United States gathers the biggest armada of warships seen in the Caribbean for decades. This coming week, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, will arrive from the Mediterranean to join the assortment of destroyers, frigates, amphibious assault vessels and one nuclear-powered submarine. No one seems to know exactly what this magnificent display of American naval firepower is all about. Has it been sent to destroy the cocaine smuggling networks in Venezuela, or topple President Nicolas Maduro, the egregious leader of that poor country; or is its purpose to remind the Latin American region that the US under Donald Trump could come in “guns a-blazing” whenever it wants? Whatever the answer, Trump is currently examining all the options for some form of possible military action over and above the target practice granted the US Navy to knock out any speedboat coming out of Venezuela suspected of carrying bags pf cocaine and drug smugglers heading for the US. The tally so far is at least 17 vessels destroyed, including one semi-submersible, resulting in the death of 70 people. However, this is not the sort of mission appropriate for the mighty Gerald R Ford, a carrier with up to 90 aircraft on board, including the super-advanced F-35C stealth fighter. There has to be a grander plan. This, at least, will be the thinking of President Maduro who has been appealing for military help from his backers, notably Moscow. Apart from Maduro himself, his regime flunkies, the police and army who get paid high wages to stay loyal, there can’t be many people in Venezuela who would not welcome a bit of US intervention to get rid of a president who has destroyed the country’s economy since he came to power in April, 2013, through gross mismanagement, corruption and greed. Nearly eight million people have already fled the country, leaving behind their unsellable homes and businesses. Trump is not into nation-building. The American experience in Afghanistan demonstrated all too clearly that a country with a different culture and traditions cannot be transformed into a western-style nation just because a US-led coalition believes it’s the best answer. Trump is also supposed to be against wars, well wars that require American boots on the ground. So, it begs the question once again, what is the mission of this build-up of naval forces within striking distance of Venezuela? Does the commanding officer of the Gerald R Ford carrier strike force know what role he is supposed to play in the next few weeks? The options in front of Trump are said to include: comprehensive strikes within Venezuela of the known drug cartels’ strongholds, attacks on the military protecting Maduro, seizing the country’s oil fields, and going for Maduro directly, just like the US did in Panama in 1989/1990. More than 26,000 US troops swept in by helicopter and landing vessels to capture General Manuel Noriega, the country’s leader. Noriega like Maduro, was designated by Washington as a drug trafficking baron. Some of these options would require boots on the ground, whether special operations forces or Marines on the amphibious assault ships now off Venezuela. However, Trump is already being heavily criticised for the attacks on drug boats, albeit taking place in international waters. They are not justified under international maritime law, experts have said. The Trump administration has argued that the US is engaged in an armed conflict against drug cartels and that those killed were “unlawful combatants”. This was the phrase used by President George W Bush’s administration to justify the extra-judicial capture and detention in Guantanamo of suspected al-Qaeda terrorists, following 9/11. The Trump administration has been seeking advice from the Justice Department about the legality of attacking facilities in Venezuela associated with the drug cartels, as well as, potentially, a direct targeting of Maduro. Judging by leaks in Washington, it would seem the advice ws that the administration does not have legal justification for strikes on Venezuela. Officials were quoted as telling Congress that Trump was not currently planning to launch strikes inside Venezuela. If this is the case, then the arrival of USS Gerald R Ford and escorting warships presents Trump with a conundrum. Deploying a carrier from the Mediterranean via the Atlantic to the Caribbean Sea, a journey of around 2,700 nautical miles, is not done for fun. It’s a deliberate and provocative move, authorised by the president to send the most potent warning that the US means business. Maduro beware, was the message from the White House. This week the US Navy will have at least thirteen surface warships and a nuclear-powered submarine operating near Venezuela. Some of the warships and the submarine are armed with Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, the weapon system favoured by previous US presidents to carry out strikes without the need for sending troops. In addition to warships, the US has reactivated a Cold War era naval base in Puerto Rico, about 500 miles from Venezuela’s coast, and sent troops, F-35B stealth fighters, Marine Corps helicopters and heavy transport aircraft, as part of the military package for potential action against Venezuela. In recent days, Trump has had Nigeria as well as Venezuela on his mind, the former because of the continuing slaughter of Christians by Islamic terror gangs. This was when he threatened to send troops in “guns a-blazing”. In the case of Venezuela, the Tomahawk option might be seen as a more practical solution. There is intelligence evidence that the Venezuelan military plays a role in ensuring the successful trafficking of drugs out of the country. The biggest cartel, the Cartel de los Soles, is allegedly led by high-ranking members of the Venezuelan armed forces. Military facilities identified as being linked to the drug cartels could be targets for Tomahawks. The CIA which was given authority by Trump last month to launch covert operations in Venezuela, will no doubt have been helping to pinpoint potential drugs-linked installations. But will Trump go this far? Having deployed so much firepower to the Caribbean, is he going to give the order to launch strikes or will he listen to the Justice Department lawyers, counselling caution? The sudden announcement last month of the early retirement of Admiral Alvin Holsey, commander of Southern Command which overseas American operations in the South Caribbean and Latin America, suggests there may be growing concerns in the US military about what the commander-in-chief has in mind for Venezuela. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER - AMAZON, WATERSTONES, TJ JONES, FOYLES