Saturday 5 October 2024

Is there any possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon?

The Iranian foreign minister arrived in Beirut and the first thing he said was that Iran would support the idea of a ceasefire in Lebanon provided the Israelis stopped bombing Hamas in Gaza. It's a quid pro quo too far for Benjamin Netanyahu I would say. His whole raison d'etre is to finish the job and that means keeping bombing Hamas and Hezbollah until they are either wiped out or reduced to such an extent they no longer present a threat to anyone. Israel is not there yet. Hamas may have lost half of its fighters but they are still putting up a fight, and Hezbollah has lost most of its leaders and half of its arsenal of missiles, but the rockets are still coming. So the idea of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and an end to any more bombing in Gaza will seem pretty unattractive to Netanyahu whose only hope of surviving as political leader is to win the two wars outright. That could take months. Meanwhile there is the little matter of Iran. Does Netanyahu want to destroy Iran as well? Or at least destroy Iran's arsenal of ballistic missiles and nuclear facilities. This would be both catstrophic for the Middle East and for the planet because it would lead to all-out war and bring in the United States and possibly Britain and other European nations. So there are big decisions ahead. Netanyahu is vowing huge revenge for the ballistic-missile attack on Israel by Iran, so in a way he is obliged to carry it out or lose face. Sometime in the next few days, Israel is going to launch a massive strike on Iranian targets. Then what? We don't know but the Iranian foreign minister's appeal for a ceasefire in Lebanon shows how scared Tehran must be.

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