Sunday 22 September 2024

What could go wrong for Kamala Harris?

The American historian Allan Lichtman who has nearly always correctly predicted who will win the US presidential election has said Kamala Harris will win in November unless something goes seriously wrong. What could that be? With seven weeks to go, any number of things could happen which might halt her progress to the White House. The first thing that comes to mind is u-turns. She is famous for changing her mind over the years, but right now she can't afford to go flippity-flop on any of the big issues. She did one of these this last week when she was quoted as saying that if someone broke into her house the intruder would be shot. The image was of the vice president standing in the hallway of her house with a shotgun in her hands and blasting the intruder. First of all it was a pretty inflammatory thing to say, even in America, but then her officials quickly stepped in and said she was just joking. She probably lost a lot of gun-possessing voters who would definitely open fire at anyone breaking into their homes. It was only a minor u-turn, but any bigger ones and she could be in real trouble. What she says about the economy, the war in Gaza, the war in Ukraine and immigration/the border over the next few weeks will be instantly compared with what she has said in the past. Voters like to know where their leaders and future leaders stand on all the major issues. If Kamala is going to win, as Allan Lichtman and polls seem to be suggesting, she dare not put a foot wrong between now and November. No wonder she seems so reluctant to hold press conferences.

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