Monday 23 September 2024

Israel and Hezbollah escalating towards disaster

We keep on hearing that neither Israel nor Hezbollah want a full-scale war but they are going about it in an odd way. Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon today killed more than 270 people, and Hezbollah has been firing longer-range missiles which have hit the suburbs of Haifa. Every day is worse, every day the escalation builds. The focus is suddenly away from Gaza and more on southern Lebanon. Everyone knows that Iran has helped Hezbollah build much more advanced and much longer-range weapons which have yet to be used. Why? Because Iran wants Hezbollah to keep these weapons for when there is a real threat by Israel against Iran itself, and, more specifically, against its nuclear weapons research facilities. So Hezbollah has yet to unleish these much more advanced missiles against Israel, under Tehran orders. But this may change if Israel launches a ground invasion of southern Lebanon as part of its determination to push Hezbollah further back away from the border with northern Israel to allow Israeli citizens to return to their homes in that area. A ground operation could be the final straw that forces Iran to authorise Hezbollah to resort to the weapons that can penetrate far into Israel. That would be a disaster for Israel and for the whole of the Middle East. Who is going to pull back from the brink? Israel is counting on Hezbollah blinking first.

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