When will the real financial reckoning for Covid start?

We have all got so used to vast sums being spent to prop up economies and livelihoods during this pandemic that millions, billions or trillions all sound the same. But as the vaccine programmes start to have a real and lasting impact on Covid-19, the world is going to have to take stock and decide how severe the financial reckoning will have to be to pay for it all. The US under Biden has produced yet another breathtakingly large package to stimulate the economy - $1.9 trillion, a figure beyond the average person's comprehension. That sum of money, adding to America's frighteningly high debt would be more understandable if the US vaccine programme was shooting ahead at a phenominal rate but it's slow slow slow. So far only around 14 per cent of the population have had their jab. At least in the UK the vaccine programme is going at a faster rate and all adults should be jabbed at least once by July 31. Even so, the Boris Johnson government has borrowed nearly £300 billion to cope with the disastrous economic consequences of the pandemic. If interest rates were to suddenly jump up, the payback on that borrowing mountain would be astronomical. So what is the answer? With the UK government about to announce its budget next week, every expert has come out of the woodwork to give their views about what to do or not to do. Many say it would be wrong to increase taxes because that would have a negative effect on the overall economy. Others say there should be a tax on high-earners or on pensioners with big pensions. An increase in tax for businesses would seem to me to be suicidal. Businesses who have been struggling to stay afloat throughout the last 12 months would just give up in despair if they get hammered by the Treasury. Something will have to increase to pay off this huge debt. Perhaps for those who can afford it, there should be a voluntary contribution campaign, £50-£100 gift per household. If dear old Captain Sir Tom Moore could raise £30 million for the National Health Service why can't we have the biggest crowdfund ever to raise a few billion to help towards paying off the national debt? Daft idea I suppose but it would be like helping the whole country to get back on its feet.

Biden's insuperable problem with Saudi Arabia

Unfortunately Crown Prince Mohammed bin Sultan, de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, is not going step down and go quietly into a tent in the desert for the rest of his days. He's the big chief in the royal kingdom and knows it, and Joe Biden will have to make up his mind how the US is going to play MBS as he is called. He, or the Saudi government, has denied any involvement in the brutal killing and body-sawing of Jamal Khashoggi, the Saudi dissident journalist whose body bits have never been uncovered but were probably dumped in the sea. The CIA says different. In its redacted report the agency says MBS approved of the operation to grab Khashoggi and eliminate him because he was a constant thorn in the side of the Saudi royal family. CIA says one thing - and thus the US government - and the Saudi government says another. There is no room for compromise here, on either side. Actually there was nothing in yesterday's published report that we didn't know already so it can hardly have come as a surprise to Riyadh. What WAS new was the Biden administration's decision to make it public - to publish a declassified version which thus placed the ball firmly in the court of the Saudi government, and in particular the Crown Prince. They kicked it back and said rubbish and fake news. Now what does Biden do? Just keep quiet and hope it all goes away? The report is out for all to see and leave it at that. I really don't see how that is going to be possible. Biden has put his marker down and if he wants to be an honest and upright president he has to deal with Saudi Arabia in a way that takes on board at all times the allegation/fact that Saudi nationals, on the orders of the de facto leader of the country, caused the brutal death of a journalist in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Well Biden has already made one important move by stopping selling arms to Saudi Arabia for its war in Yemen where weapons with US brand names have killed and maimed hundreds if not thousands of Yemeni civilians. It's very difficult to see how Saudi Arabia and the United States can remain partners/allies under these current circumstances. But Saudi Arabia and the US share a common enemy. Iran. And for that reason the US cannot afford to cast Saudi Arabia into diplomatic quarantine. Perhaps even as I write this, there are back channels being opened to make sure contacts between Washington (including the CIA) and the office of Crown Prince bin Sultan remain intact. And if so, the angry denials from the Saudis over the Khashoggi murder are all part of an agreed game plan and that life will go on. I feel desperately sorry for Khashoggi's aggrieved fiancee.

When push comes to shove, Russian diplomats leave North Korea by trolley

When you gotta go you gotta go. Russian diplomats based in Pyongyang but due to leave to return to their Motherland were told there was no way out. No planes. No trains. The Covid barriers had come down and they couldn't get out. So they adopted what can only be described as desperate measures worthy of a top class spy novel to leave the country. They went as far as they could by bus and train to get within one kilometre of the border with Russia and then borrowed a rail trolley, put their luggage and children on it and then took it in turns to push it down the line till they got over the frontier. Good for them. What a way to exit one of the worst countries in the world. It brought back mwemories of how Britain's MI6 spirited master double agent Oleg Gordievsky out of Moscow in 1985 and safely over the border into Finland, with the KGB/MI6 agentlying uncomfortably in the boot of a diplomatic car. At least the Russian diplomats could carry out their trolley journey without fear of being unmasked or shot at but I bet there was a cheer of relief when they spotted the border and saw some Russian compatriots waiting for them on the other side. A great tale.

Trump's political reemergence and the Sunday speech

It's all boiling up nicely for the political reemergence of Donald Trump after five weeks of golf. On Sunday he is to make a speech at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, Florida. By all accounts he is going to attack Joe Biden and place himself firmly in the Republican party power game although without actually declaring himself as a candidate for the 2024 election. He won't need to because I'm sure the audience will be shouting "four more years" as soon as he appears. This conference is a big deal for the uber-conservative elements of the Republican party and Trump will no doubt be in fine Trumpian form, preaching to the converted. He's good at stirring up the crowd, always has been, and the fact that he was defeated - yes defeated - in the 2020 election will be cast to one side. Most of those attending the conference will be of the view that the election was a case of grand theft larceny by the Democrats. So if Trump gives a nod and a wink in his speech about his 2024 thoughts, the roof will come down. One absentee it seems will be poor Nikki Haley who is now caught between two stools: breaking with Trump (as she has) and risk losing the support of every Trump fire-breathing fan, or siding with Trump (too late) and thus effectively giving up her ambitions to be a contender in 2024. Politics is so damn tricky especially when a Super Populist is still running the show even in defeat. Whatever Trump says on Sunday his voice will come out louder than Joe Biden's on any day of the week. And unfortunately loudness and brashness and fist-waving have more political impact than the quiet approach adopted by Biden. I think it's fascinating that Biden has decided to deal with Saudi Arabia only by talking to King Salman and thus ignoring his feisty Crown Pince son Mohammad bin Salman (MBS). This is principally because MBS is going to be accused in a declassified CIA report of ordering or approving the killing of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018. But even so, the fact is that MBS rules the roost in Saudi Arabia, and the king, 85, has not been a well man for some time. MBS is the new generation, the king is the old and departing generation. Even if the CIA report is devastating, MBS will still be the power beside the throne and Biden will have to learn to deal with him. None of the Khashoggi-MBS links seem to worry Trump who got his son-in-law Jared Kushner to woo the crown prince which he did. I doubt Trump will bring this up in his speech on Sunday but I bet he will remind his adoring fans that only he, Trump, knows how to deal with the toughest leaders of the world. Biden tiptoes, Trump tramples.

Mitt Romney admits Trump would slam-dunk 2024 Republican nomination

This says it all about the state of politics in the United States and, in particular, the state of the Republican party. Mitt Romney, former presidential nominee, grandee/maverick of the Republican party, says that if Trump were to stand as candidate for the 2024 presidential election he would win the nomination by a country mile, as we say in Blighty. Romney is a realist. He's almost definitely right because, as he says, Trump's voice is the loudest and strongest in the party and the way things are going it will remain so for the next four years. It's quite the most extraordinary situation. Here is a man who has lost an election and caused the Senate to lose its Republican majority and has been impeached twice, and yet he is still seen as the flag-bearer for this defeated party. No wonder Trump must be feeling pretty bullish down on the golf course in Florida. I feel sorry for the Republicans with dreams of being nominated for 2024, such as Marco Rubio, Florida senator and still only 49, and of course Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and ex-ambassador to the United Nations, also just 49. According to Romney who I presume will not be standing again in 2024, they have no chance if Trump has another go at the White House job. It's bleak for them and bleak for the Republican party and bleak for the United States of America, my second favourite country in the world. As I have blogged before, the resolution lies in the hands of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. If they do really well in the next four years and there is no new war and no new pandemic and the economy flourishes and the world stays relatively quiet and stable and climate-change is dealt with properly (wow that's a lot of ifs), then even if Trump comes back he will lose against the Democrats. If things go badly and the Biden/Harris leadership fails America, then Trump Part Two just might happen. I think/hope Biden and Harris will be all right.

Faces without masks - that's what I look forward to

Apart from the appalling death toll from Covid-19, the separation of loved-ones and the desperate strain seen in the faces of doctors and nurses in intensive care units, the wearing of masks in public has been one of the defining features of this pandemic. And it's one of the things I look forward to casting aside when we all return to normal life, due, it is said, between June and September. Masks have been more than just a covering-up of mouth and nose. They have come to represent the fears and worries of this year-old pandemic. When the mask goes on, the eyes lower too, the shoulders go rounded, people look away.You feel a different class of human being. For a start if someone is smiling at you you don't realise, unless the eyes are sparkling. You talk but can't properly hear what's being said because the mask muffles the voice. You can't be jolly in a Covid mask, you just want to do what you have to do and get home. Masks have made us all hesitant, over-cautious and apologetic. I just hope that when normality returns, when the pandemic is effectively over because we are all vaccinated, the human race can go back to being energetic and optimistic and inspiring and sociable and happy. For those who have lost members of family or friends, this future life we all yearn for will never return to what it was like before March 2020. But even for these poor souls, I hope that the nationwide throwing-away of masks, however prettily designed they might have been, will give a sense of rejuvenation and liberty and hope.

Lockdown has been all about can'ts and don'ts

Hopefully after what seems like 12 months of "you can't do this and you can't do that" we are about to enter a new period, albeit cautiously, in which our life balance will change and we can begin to enjoy "you can do this and you can do that." Throughout the pandemic it has been all about government micromanaging our lives: standing at least two metres from anyone not in your household bubble, not going for a walk with friends, just one other person, not sitting down on a bench and eating a sandwich, not drinking coffee while walking, not driving more than six miles from your home, not flying anywhere, not eating out, not going to the library or concerts or theatre or cinema, not hugging anyone outside that wretched bubble etc. There was a brief relaxation in the summer when that crazy eat-out-and-help-out project was launched to encourage people to go back to restaurants and eat substantial meals and then when we all flocked to our favourite eateries it was all closed down again. How much Covid spreading happened during that brief flurry of madness? Now, with the vaccination programme going great guns - people in their 50s are being called up for the jab - and a dramatic drop in the number of hospital Covid cases, we're going to be allowed to step out into the sunshine with a little more sense of normality. But still the government will be micromanaging us. So while there will be more "you can do this" there will still be plenty of "but you can't do that". That's in the UK. There will be similar relaxations in the US but Dr Anthony Fauci, the ultra-cautious expert on viruses, is talking abou the need for masks in public until NEXT YEAR. With all these restrictions on our liberty for so long, I wonder if we have all now become hermit-like and timid and worried and cautious and undaring? In other words, will we ever really go back to pre-pandemic normal or will we hide behind our front doors, scared to go wild and enjoy life to the full? I hope not but even after we have all been double-dose jabbed, there is bound to be a lingering hesitation about the life ahead, particularly among older people.