Trump is an angry man

It looks like Trump was totally taken aback by the tumult of criticism he received over the termination of James Comey, probably the tallest FBI director in history. Well, shock shock shock. Anyone with any knowledge of news stories and how reporters/editors react when there's an announcement of this excitement coming out of the White House would know that the reaction is going to be big, huge, monstrous and largely CRITICAL!!! How could it be anything else? Trump seems to have thought that his decision to sack Comey would be welcomed by everyone, except possibly Comey and his wife. But no, to his amazement and bewilderment, nearly everyone was flabbergasted and accused Trump of the biggest cover-up since Watergate. Even the Democratic establishment who only a few months ago were bellowing for Comey's dismissal, shouted scandal when they were told the news. Poor old Trump. He is so badly advised that, for once, he actually thought he was doing the right thing. You just can't win when you're president of the USA. The trouble is Trump is such an inner circle sort of president that he didn't even bother to inform his press office till about an hour before the statement was put out. They must have gone ballistic. But none of them thought to tell the president, no no no, this is a disastrous PR move. The papers will slaughter you. There'll be talk of impeachment. They'll say you're as bad as Richard Nixon. Oh my God, it's Watergate all over again. Only it will be called Comeygate. Well, of course, the likes of Sean Spicer and co wouldn't dare tell the president he had got it all wrong. It was too late anyway, the letter had already been written and this mysterious former police chief who is Trump's principal bodyguard and go-to flunky (what do the Secret Service think of him I wonder?), was probably on his way to FBI HQ even as Spicer was desperately trying to think of how to spin the disaster. I actually feel sorry for Spicer for once. What the hell can you say to make this decision look good? What you don't say, under any circumstances, is "the President did this for Hillary." Which is pretty well what the White House did say, at least for a few hours. Then they had to change it by saying Trump wanted to sack Comey way back but let him ride for a bit longer until suddenly, enough enough, off with his head. Spicer didn't know which way to turn, he gathered reporters around him in front of a hedge on the White House lawn and shouted, "no cameras no cameras!!" He didn't want this momentous moment to be filmed because he could see the video spinning around the world, with him trying desperately to look composed when he clearly was not! The moral of this story is that Trump should start to make nice with all the hotshot journalists in town, invite them for dinner, give them lollypops, treat them with respect, draw them into your confidence, be a great media lover. Then, just maybe, the papers won't be so harsh. I can't guarantee it, but part of Trump's problem is that he hates the media and he keeps on telling them that he hates them because of all the fake news. Well, Trump, there ain't nothing fake about sacking Comey. That's a big deal and you threw it into the fire without so much as a mini briefing all lined up for the media to put the whole thing in context. Live and learn!

Trump's Feebi moment

There must be something intensely satisfying about being able to sack, sorry, terminate, the director of the FBI. Trump did it in a swirl, wrote a brief letter and sent it by hand with his trusted private security man to FBI headquarters. He couldn't say: "You're fired", because James Comey might have thought it was Trump playing the Apprentice game for a laugh. So, that huge word, TERMINATE, was deployed instead. Not, your job is terminated, but you are terminated!! Wow, that's a letter to keep for the CV. I'll get to the whys and wherefores in a minute. But let's first remember J Edgar Hoover. He was the first FBI director and he served under six presidents, four of whom, Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, John F Kennedy and Richard Nixon, wanted to sack him but none of them dared. This was because the nice Mr Hoover had built up such a mountain of files on every president, including all their foibles and secret desires and naughty stuff, that none of them ever got to write a Trump-type termination letter. Now Comey had only been FBI director for three and a half years, but he must have gathered a few snippets of interest to store away. Probably not that much with Obama. He always seemed pretty squeaky clean. But Trump, oh my goodness, where could he start? And of course, as soon as he started getting his best investigators to trawl through wiretaps of Russian officials and SVR types in Washington and back in Moscow, hunting for any collusion evidence between Trump campaign members and the Ruskies, he must have thought he was going to find some golden nuggets;especially after Christopher Steele, the British former MI6 intelligence officer, revealed in a leaked dossier that Trump had been photographed in a Moscow hotel in his pre-president days, having a few lovely ladies urinating on his person, for pleasure. The great Golden Shower affair. Fake news, said Trump, and I guess I believe him. He couldn't have been so stupid, surely, to do any such thing in a Moscow hotel? But Steele came up with masses of financial skulduggery as well. No one has really managed to provide any evidence to back up Steele's claims. He was a good intelligence officer, but my reading of the dossier was that this was a man who had spent years in MI6 and was now, as a private security consultant, making a few bob by throwing in everything he had ever heard on the street or in gossipy wine bars about Trump's exploits. It was not a dossier that was ever going to be taken totally seriously as a result. Poor judgment in my view. But this is all yesterday. What about Comey today? Did he learn anything incriminating about Trump campaign team collusion with Moscow to destroy Hillary Clinton? And will he now reveal all to the Senate and House intelligence committees, free, as he is, to speak his mind unencumbered by FBI confidentiality restrictions? Will he become Trump's worst enemy, and will it bring Trump down? I seriously doubt he has such evidence. James Clapper, the former director of national intelligence, has stated that there is no evidence of collusion. Clapper is not a Trump man. He served under Obama. If he says there was no collusion, then I tend to believe him. Trump must have felt safe terminating Comey, because he knew there had been no collusion, not with his name on it anyway. He'd basically gone off Comey because instead of saving the country from terrorists and other bad guys he appeared to be spending all his time delving into the election campaign trying to detect any smell of Russian interference and plotting. Comey had also rudely dismissed Trump's allegation that Obama had tapped his phones in Trump Tower. That must have pissed him off. How dare the director of the FBI poo poo his claim, and in public! So Comey's days were numbered from that moment on. It's just that Trump's timing is terrible. He chose to terminate Comey just as Sergei Lavrov, the lugubrious Russian foreign minister, was about to have a session with him in the White House. Conspiracy theorists went wild! So, here is my prediction for what will happen after the intelligence committees and FBI have concluded their investigations: there will be NO prima facie evidence of collusion between Moscow and Trump or anyone else but there will be new dirt on one person - Mike Flynn. So, the book will be thrown at Flynn, and he could go to jail, unless, of course, he does a deal. But whatever he offers in return for keeping out of prison, no one is going to believe him, not on his record. Trump will carry on and complete his four years. After that is anyone's guess.

Trump's Afghanistan problem

Every instinct in Trump's head will warn him against sending more US troops to Afghanistan. That place is a bottomless pit of disaster. There is no way anyone is ever going to defeat the Taliban - ie remove them from the Earth. They will always be around. They're Afghans after all, most of them. But what does he do when General Jim Mattis, trusted adviser on military matters, says to him this week: "Look, Mr President, I know you don't want to get further involved in Afghanistan but the job isn't finished. We've had a go for 16 years but the Taliban are still strong, they've taken over most of Helmand province, they're back in all their old haunts, they're killing Afghan soldiers at a phenominal rate, they show no signs of wanting to negotiate peace, and we only have 8,400 troops there to assist them. We need to send more, at least 3,000, and may be more." The trouble with this argument is that an extra 3,000 American troops will do almost nothing to change the dire situation in Afghanistan. I know for a fact that a very senior former military man close to Trump advised him that the only way to make a difference now is to return to Afghanistan all those "enabling" troops - ie support personnel - who were removed by Obama. That means logistics guys, intelligence specialists, Apache attack helicopter crews, communications units etc etc. If Trump were to agree to that, it would mean sending perhaps 15,000 to 20,000 more troops back into the cauldron. It makes most military sense, but I doubt Trump will buy it. He will probably say, what's the point? We tried all that before and it didn't work. Or at least it worked while they were all there but as soon as they were withdrawn, it was back to square one. Why? Because the Afghan national security forces are basically an infantry army. They just don't have the huge back-up which was supplied by the Americans when they were there in huge numbers. So Trump will probably say, ok let's send 3,000 more troops provided you can guarantee they will really make a difference. But they won't. The US sent 300 more Marines to Helmand to boost the Afghan army there. But they are not there as combat troops and there's not much they can do to win back Helmand from the Taliban who have seized control of all the areas once fought over at huge casualty cost by the Brits and Americans way back. I'm not suggesting we, the West, abandons Afghanistan. But the Taliban are not going to be forced to the negotiating table if the Americans send just another 3,000 troops, none of whom will be combat-authorised. Ok, if the Brits and Dutch and French and Germans etc each send another 1,000, the numbers could mount up. But that is NOT going to happen. There are elections going on and no European leader wants to put Afghanistan at the top of any must-do list. The Taliban just have to wait to get what they want. They have time and patience and the will. We, us, the West, we have other things to worry about, eg North Korea, Iran, Russia, China. If Trump does decide to go for the 3,000 extra, the war will go on without any real pressure on the Taliban to seek peace. If he were to send 20,000, that would make a big difference but it will probably mean America's military involvement in Afghanistan will continue for the whole of Trump's four-year term and probably into his second four-year term if he wins again. I doubt he would consider that a good idea. So the stalemate in Afghanistan will continue. It is a shocking example of how military might does not and cannot win in a country like Afghanistan where the insurgents are part of the landscape and, incidentally, while the Taliban leaders can stay safe in their two sanctuaries in Pakistan, assisted I am sure by the Pakistani military and intelligence apparatus. Now there is something you can do, President Trump. Clear out the Taliban hierarchy from Quetta and Miramshar, close to the Afghan border. Ok, you can't drop another of those mother of all bombs in these two places, but you can give an ultimatum to the Pakistani government: drive these b******* out of there, or Pakistan is off the partner list for good.

Le Pen rings Trump

Marine Le Pen doesn't like the polls and rings Trump for advice. Le Pen: "Monsieur le President, Marine Le Pen here. I want to ask votre advice." Trump: "Sure, go ahead. Who is that again?" Le Pen: "Marine Le Pen, Monsieur le President. La France, vive la France." Trump: "Does Jared know you're ringing? Le Pen: "Qui, qui est Jared?" Trump: "My son-in-law." Le Pen: "Aaaah, non, I don't have 'is number." Trump: "Well be quick, or I'll be in trouble. You know what in-laws can be like." Le Pen: "Mais oui, Monsieur le President, I need to ask you about the Russians." Trump: "Not you as well, everyone wants to ask me about the Russians. It's all fake news. I don't know any Russians." Le Pen: "Non non non, I want to ask how I can get the Russians to make sure I get elected." Trump: "Look, Marie, I won because the American people love me. Russia had nothing to do with it." Le Pen: "Mais, bien sure, Monsieur le President, je comprends mais just give me a number to ring." Trump: "Marie, you've got it all wrong. Just tell the French people you want France first, you'll win ok." Le Pen: "That ees what I told them already. Don't you read the papers?" Trump: "I don't speak French." Le Pen: "My campaign, my campaign ees all about putting France first!!!" Trump: "Ok ok, keep your blouse on." Le Pen: "It's true what they say, you are against women." Trump: "Look Marie, I love women, everything about me grabbing whatsits is all fake news." Le Pen: "My name is Marine." Trump: "Marie, I've got to go, I have Trudeau on the other line." Le Pen: "But what about the Russians? I want them to destroy Macron." Trump: "Can't help you, Marie. If the Russians want to destroy Macron I'm sure they will." Le Pen: "Shall I speak to Jared?" Trump: "He doesn't know any Russians either." Le Pen: "But I thought the Russians wanted you to win and not Hillary." Trump: "Maybe, but I can't speak about it, the NSA and FBI might be listening." Le Pen: "If I win, can I come to the White House?" Trump: "Sure, Marie, any time."

Watch out for President Marine Le Pen

I think secretly a lot more French men and women who claim to be supporting Macron really want Marine Le Pen to win. It's the Trump situation all over again. Thousands and thousands, nay millions, of Americans who claimed to be voting for Hillary, actually voted for Trump. They just didn't have the courage to say out loud that they wanted Trump in the White House for fear of being ridiculed, hated or despised by their friends, family and next-door neighbours. I suspect the same is happening in France. Your middle class, well educated French voter would not dare to say they are going to vote for Le Pen and will speak hopefully about Emmanuel Macron as if he is the new saviour of France. But really deep down they don't want an unknown bloke who looks quire nice but is all wishy-washy about immigration and adores the EU. He will be Merkel's man no question. So when they go into the ballot box, these middle class decent voters will cautiously look over their shoulder and then put the cross against Le Pen and quickly sneak away into the night, pretending to have voted for Macron. So watch out on Sunday night. The polls indicate a landslide for Macron. But this is the new era, the era when a man like Trump became president of the USA, and Erdogan became the new Attaturk. It is not out of the question that Marine Le Pen will be president of France on Sunday. I could be wrong but I am sure there are a lot of French voters who will just say to themselves, "Oh zut, enough of these little men, let's go for the blousy Marine".

Trump going for broke

Some names mentioned in this blog are going to be given special nicknames. Most will be obvious. There's a lot going on. Trump (now Pomp) is going to go for the Holy Grail, a peace settlement in the Middle East. No one has succeeded before. Bill Clinton got as close as anyone but was then betrayed by the slimey Arafat who clearly decided he could not be the Palestinian leader who did a deal with the hated Israelis. So, after pretty well agreeing to sign, he then didn't. Arafat has a lot to answer for, except he's dead. But Pomp is now determined to have a go and after a meeting with Abbas, the Palestinian boss, he believes he has all the answers. Good luck President Pomp. You have to deal with BB Notonyahoo, a tricky customer if ever there was one. If Abbas agrees to sign, Notonyahoo will renege at the last moment because he won't want to be the Israeli leader who does a deal with the Palestinians. Oh no, not on his Rolex watch. So have a go, Pomp, by all means but the rest of the world will not be holding its breath. Then Pomp wants to have a deal with Poohtin about bringing peace to Syria. Well all the talk about a ceasefire is causing some confusion. I thought there was supposed to be a ceasefire already. But if Pomp and Poohtin can sort something out, and President Acid will go along with it, all well and good. Syria and the Syrian people have had enough. This once wonderful dignified country with a history of nobility has faced so much slaughter there's not much country left. Acid, like Arafat, has a lot to account for, and he's still alive. If Pomp fails with the Palestinian/Israeli impasse and Syria, there's no one else capable of stepping in. Theresa Mayormaynot has no influence in the Middle East, the soon-to-be President of France, Emmanuel Micron, is an unknown quantity, and Chancellor Angela Dorothea Schmerkel has her sights set elsewhere. Good luck President Pomp, you're on your own.

Trump has no mates

It's difficult for Trump. Basically, looking around the world, he has no mates.There's no one he can ring up for a chat and a gossip and a sorting-out-the-world sort of conversation. Not with anyone. Bill Clinton had his old mate Tony Blair, a right swinging couple they made, especially when Bill was on the trumpet and when they had deep discussions about the Third Way, whatever that meant. George W Bush had....er, his old mate Tony Blair. They loved wearing the same sort of leather jacket and mucking around on his Crawford ranch talking about bumping off Saddam Hussein. Ronnie Reagan, of course, had his Maggie, although there must have been times when Ronnie thought, oh God it's Maggie Thatcher on the phone again, what's she going to tick me off about now? But they got on fine. George H W Bush had all his old CIA chums to chew the fat with. Gerald Ford, well I haven't a clue who his best mates were, apart from his wife. But Trump can find no mates whenever he looks in the "Foreign Section" of his contacts book. There's Theresa the other side of the Atlantic. But although he held her hand when he went to London, he washed both his hands pretty damn soon after, and I can't see him regarding Theresa as a bosom pal. What on earth would they talk about on the phone? He can't rely on the Brits sending a division anywhere these days. It would be a helluva job just getting a brigade together from the tiny army that David Cameron left behind before he skipped it after the Brexit disaster. He can't talk trade with Theresa because in London he said the UK would be in the front of the queue but when he got back to Washington he said exactly the opposite. In fact just like Obama did. So a chatline with London is out. Then there's Merkel. Absolutely no way. There's about as much chemistry between them as a large stick of candyfloss and a potato. He's also slightly scared of her because she always speaks her mind and sticks to it. He can't stand people like that. What about Trudeau? No, he's too damn handsome and makes him feel like an old fart. Secretly he hates Canadians anyway. Xi Zinping was supposed to be his new soulmate, what with needing to sort out Kim Jong-un together, but Trump learned very quickly that Chinese leaders don't do soulmate stuff and they are two- or even three-faced chaps who smile enigmatically but never really stop plotting behind your back. Anyway, you can't talk to a bloke who speaks Mandarin and then the translation is very very dodgy. Putin. Well, Putin was going to be his great mate but it kinda didn't work out that way. He had forgotten that Putin spent most of his life in the KGB and was therefore totally completely utterly untrustworthy. Trump has decided he doesn't like Putin. All that bare-chest horse riding and karate makes him sick with envy. That's about it in the Foreign Section of his contacts book. He has never spoken to Hollande and hasn't a clue about this little bloke Macron who will now definitely win the French presidential election because the whole political establishment will back him just to keep out Marine Le Pen. Trump will never be friends with Macron. He married someone 24 years older than him for God's sake. Mind you, showing off his much younger wife will be fun if he ever has to invite Macron to the White House. There's no one else around to ring. He has no idea who the leaders of Holland, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Belgium etc etc are, so they are off the list. So, there we go. Trump has no mates. He'll just have to make do with Ivanka.