Monday 16 September 2024

How much longer can Ukraine fight Russia?

Wars can go on for ever. There was the 100-year war between England and France from 1337 to 1453 over English claims to the French throne. But the Ukraine/Russia war is different. While the former was a series of military skirmishes over more than 100 years, the latter is a full-scale modern war which has already lasted two years and nearly seven months. How much longer can it go on? Joe Biden has always said that the US-led coalition of 50 countries will continue to support Ukraine to defend itself against Russian aggression "for as long as it takes". But this is totally unrealistic if the war never stops. The war has to come to an end sometime, and the sooner the better. But how on earth is this going to happen without Putin winning much of what he hoped to gain when he launched his invasion on February 24, 2022? Biden and Keir Starmer held what they called strategic talks about the war in Ukraine at the White House last week, meaning presumably they discussed the end game. But is there an end game? The only one put forwaqrd so far is the vague "plan" of Donald Trump's to shut it all down if he wins the election in November. Judging by what JD Vance, his vice presidential running-mate has indicated, that will mean giving Putin everything he wants: hanging on to all the land he has seized in eastern Ukraine, building a demilitarised zone separating this vast area from the rest of Ukraine, giving Kyiv guaranteed independence but no right to join Nato or the EU. Putin doesn't get the whole of Ukraine under his wing as he had hoped but he gets pretty much everything else he wanted. Victory for Putin. Oh and Trump expects Germany and other EU members to foot the bill for reconstructing Ukraine, not Putin whose bombs and missiles have been destroying cities and towns throughout the country. All of thse options will surely be rejected by Biden and Starmer and obviously by President Zelensky. So will Biden and co come up with anything remotely realistic to end this war. I haven't heard Kamala Harris suggest any proposal.

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