Friday, 20 September 2024

How many more Russian dead before Putin cries halt?

The latest figure of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine is 70,000. Will this make Vladimir Putin sit up in shock as he starts his day in the Kremlin? Does he actually care? There will surely come a time when even Putin will decide that enough is enough and that some form of settlement must be negotiated. With Ukrainian troops still in the Kursk region in western Russia, and long-range drones hitting missile depots and airbases inside Russia, will Putin be making any moves in the near future to stop this terrible conflict? He will want to claim victory but the way things are going he will have to make some concessions. President Zelensky is in Washington next week with his new "victory plpan" which he will present to Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump and people in Congress. Will it be any different from his previous ones, all of which would involve the withdrawal of Russian soldiers from currently occupied territory, including Crimea? Assuming Putin would reject this out of hand, what possible alternatives might there be. Only Trump has come up with a "plan" to end the war but Zelensky has already effectively rejected his proposals which would basically give everything Putin wants. Will Biden and Kamala produce something new? It seems unlikely, although officials such as Antony Blinken, secretary of state, and Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, must be advising a change in terms of the US position vis a vis Ukraine. A proper strategically sensible deal will have to be worked out which will involve concessions by both Kyiv and Moscow. I wonder if the new Zelensky victory plan makes any concessions. We will have to wait for next week.

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