Tuesday 30 July 2024

A full war between Israel and Hezbollah is imminent or is it?

It seems like Israel and Hezbollah are always on the point of going to full-scale war. Since the Hamas atrocities in Israel on October 7 and the retaliatory war in Gaza, the threat from Hezbollah in Lebanon has increased on a weekly basis. The northern front has been a potential war zone for Israel for so long. Now it's definitely getting worse and after the rocket attack on the school football pitch in the Golan Heights which killed 12 children, the likelihood of a major conflict is almost inevitable. And yet Washington is taking a very cool sort of approach implying that beneath the surface and behind the scenes there is a massive diplomatic push going on to prevent a war. John Kirby, the spokesman for the National Security Council and an adviser to President Biden, adopted a very cool approach yesterday when asked whether war was inevitable. He said not, and indicated diplomacy was the top priority. How you do diplomacy with Hzxbollah I don't know, especially as it's backed by Iran. But Washington must have some cards to play which are holding back a disastrous confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to take revenge against Hezbollah for the deaths of the children, so there will be retaliatory strikes. But a troop invasion of southern Lebanon? That's what Washington is trying to stop. John Kirby knows what's going on diplomatically but he's not saying. All will depend on Netanyahu and what he approves. After meeting Biden and Kamala Harris and Donald Trump during last week's trip to the US, perhaps he will go for a more modest revenge attack. Israel really cannot afford to wage two wars at the same time right now.

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