Tuesday 12 March 2024

Joe Biden's Red Line to nowhere

Why do US presidents get sucked into issuing ultimatums which they can't or won't stick to? Barack Obama did it when he warned Syria that any use of chemical weapons against the Syrian people would lead to instant major retaliation by the US but failed to follow it through. Now Joe Biden has told Binyamin Netanyahu that he personally has a Red Line: Israel cannot attack the town of Rafah in southern Gaza where about 1.2 million Palestinians are sheltering. But if Netanyahu goes ahead with attacking Rafah, what will Biden do about it? Will he stop arming Iarael, will he break off all contact with Israel? I seriously doubt it. So why issue the Red Line, or what George W Bush used to call a "line in the sand", when he knows that Netanyahu is committed to finishing the job in Gaza and that means overrunning Rafah where Israel believes the main Hamas leaders are hiding. Netanyahu doesn't have any red lines in terms of achieving his objective. His only argument to Biden is that he has to stop Hamas from ever again being capable of repeating what they did on October 7, killing 1,200 Israelis. Therefore, if the remaining brigades and leaders of Hamas are in or under Rafah, that's where his forces have to go next. It's a logical argument and makes sense if you're sitting in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. But in Washington, the picture has changed completely. Now it's a question of preventing more Palestinian deaths and saving the people of Gaza from starvation. There is therefore a clash in strategy between Tel Aviv and Washington which is why declaring a Red Line is pretty pointless and ultimately an empty warning. Somehow, and Israel has failed to do this so far, the Israel Defence Forces have to find the remaining Hamas leaders and their command structure in Rafah without causing unacceptable destruction and death. Netanyahu could then tell Biden that he has not crossed the US president's Red Line but has still managed to achieve the ohjective of annihilating Hamas. But this is a terrible war and terribe mistakes are made. If Rafah is given the same treatment that was dished out to Gaza City and Khan Younis, there will be destruction and civilian deaths. It's inevitable, so Biden will face the nightmare decision of how to punish Israel if this happens. It could be a decisive moment in the war and for Biden's hopes of being reelected in November.

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