Thursday 28 March 2024

Don't worry, Putin says he's not going to invade Poland, the Baltics etc

So we can all sit back and relax. Vladimir Putin has pooh-poohed the fear expressed throughout the western alliance almost ever since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 2022 that he next plans to attack Poland, the Baltic countries of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia and any other Nato nation he fancies. Speaking at some event, Putin has declared that this is all nonsense and that he has no such ambitions. Do you know, for once, I believe him. First of all, there is no way he could try and invade Poland etc without getting immersed in a conventional war with the alliance. He knows that, and secondly, it's not like he has had brilliant success in Ukraine. Ok, in recent weeks, the Russian troops have moved forward a little and have had a better period than Ukrainian forces. But the war could go on for ever, not just draining Russia's economy but also reducing the size of the young-to-middle-aged male population by an alarmingly high rate. So, although one should never trust Putin to tell the truth - after all, he told the world he had no intention of invading Ukraine - I really do believe he has no grand scheme to commit Russia's dwindling army to perpetual warfare thrughout Europe. It makes no sense, militarily, economically or realistically. I'm sure Putin loves it when he hears Nato leaders and their advisers giving dire warnings of a Russia on the charge to take over eastern Europe. It no doubt makes him feel pretty big and tough but I doubt it puts ideas into his head. That's not to say the alliance can really relax. It needs to keep spending tons of money on defence just so as to remind Putin that the whole of Nato is off limits, including and especially, what's left of Ukraine when the war is over and it joins the alliance.

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