Friday 26 January 2024

Does Putin really want a world war?

A lot of important, well-qualified people mow seem to think that Vladimir Putin is planning to invade Europe and to take on Nato, probably in the next five to ten years. I assume that some of those making this warning, such as the head of the British army, General Sir Patrick Sanders, are basing their predictions on intelligence which reveals exactly what Putin is thinking and plotting. With no intention of being disrespectful to all these important experts, I seriously believe this to be alarmist nonsense. Putin invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago and is stuck, unable to claim any sort of victory. All the Russian troops have successfuly proved is that they are, eventually, good at building massive defences and firing long-range missiles from safe locations. They have not proved combat ability or logistical efficiency or even in many cases a willingness to fight. The British army is to be reduced to a mere 72,000 soldiers by 2026, and some of our warships have no crews, and the Royal Marines may be disbanded and our two aircraft carriers still have insufficient numbers of fighter aircraft on board. But that doesn't mean Russia is plotting to invade Poland or the Baltics, or, heaven forfend, the United Kingdom. We don't need a "citizens' army" to fight off invading Russian troops for goodness sake. Putin is stuck in Ukraine, losng tens of thousands of soldiers and ruining his economy with the need to build up production of missiles and tank shells. Dare I say it, it's almost in western interests for the war in Ukraine to carry on for ever because it will keep Putin out of mischief. But even so, there is no way Putin can believe he has a good chance of grabbing the Baltic countries. So all this talk of Russia attacking Nato is silly.

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