Air defence will be key to war in Ukraine this year

If the first two days of the New Year are anything to go by, Vladimir Putin's strategy for the war in Ukraine this year is to bombard Kyiv and other cities with kamikaze drones and cruise missiles non-stop. The bombardments have increased significantly at the same time as the Kyiv government is appealing for more air defence systems to counter the attacks. With US funding drying up thanks to Congress indecision and internal fighting, Kyiv may have to rely on Europe to send the necessary weapons. Air defence is going to be the key ingredient throughout this year and unless Kyiv gets enough Patriots and other anti-missile systems, Putin is going to hammer Ukraine to oblivion. The long-awaited F-16s will beconme operational in Ukraine this year, but they won't stop the drones and cruise missiles from flying over the country. The struggle to get enough air defence weapons in play could be the defining moment for Ukraine. Many other advanced battlefield systems sent to Ukraine, including western tanks and long-range artillery and rockets, have not so far made much difference because the land battles have effectively ground to a halt. The Russians have built such massive defences along their frontlines that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has stalled. So it's going to be a missile and drone war and Kyiv is outgunned. Ukrainian cities have the grim prospect of facing Putin's wrath following the attacks over the Russian border into Belgorod. We are going to see more and more of these tit-for-tat strikes, and Moscow has the stronger hand.