Beware what could happen to Taiwan

The United States is not ready to confront the possibility of a war with China, even though it might be “just around the corner”, a report by an American think-tank has warned. The US Navy’s top commander Admiral Mike Gilday warned four months ago that China could invade Taiwan before 2024. Yet the strategic implications of Taiwan falling into Beijing’s hands have not been properly assessed, the report by Pacific Forum, a US foreign policy research institute, concludes. If the breakaway island of Taiwan were to be seized by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), with or without US military intervention, the impact on America’s credibility around the world would be devastating, the Honolulu-based institute says. Ian Easton, an acknowledged Taiwan/China authority and one of the authors of the report, called The World after Taiwan’s Fall, outlined two “nightmare scenarios”: *Taiwan falls to the PLA without any US or allied intervention. *Taiwan is stormed and occupied by the PLA in spite of belated US and allied attempts to forestall the invasion. Under the first scenario, the government in Taiwan faced with an overwhelming PLA invasion and without any international help, decides to engage in peace talks. But during settlement negotiations in Hong Kong, a lightning invasion goes ahead and Taiwan “falls without an all-out fight”. The invasion would start with PLA armed drones taking out radar sites and intelligence-collection facilities on Taiwan’s outer islands, followed by submarines launching unmanned underwater vehicles which sever fibre-optic cables connecting the island to Japan and Guam where US forces are based. Soon after, missiles, guided rockets and attack drones “shower Taiwan, devastating the government”. When the full-scale invasion is launched, the PLA seizes advanced American weapon systems based on the island and China takes control of Taiwan’s micro-chip plants on which the US and other western nations rely. In the second scenario, headed “Too little, too late” Taiwan falls after an intense battle that ultimately includes the US and allies after protracted attempts by Washington to forge a coalition with Nato, Japan, South Korea and Australia. The US and allies discover the PLA is far more capable than Russia’s inadequately supplied and commanded invasion force in Ukraine. Hundreds of American and allied pilots are lost over the Western Pacific. Thousands of US Marines manage to land on Taiwan but suffer 50 per cent casualties before surrendering. Most of the US Pacific Fleet is sunk. “Regardless of how Taiwan is captured by the Chinese authorities, the region and the world will have lost a leading democracy, and the security architecture of the region will be altered. This would be a traumatic and potentially catastrophic event in the history of American foreign policy,” Easton writes. By invading and occupying Taiwan, Chinese bombers and missile units based on the island “would be able to hold US forces in Okinawa [Japan] and Guam at risk of surprise raids”, Easton warns. From Taiwan, China could also launch a special forces and amphibious invasion of Japan’s Ryukyu islands whose sovereignty is disputed by Beijing. “The top of the South China Sea would be ‘corked’, providing PLA ballistic missile submarines with a maritime bastion and further reinforcing China’s military dominance of Southeast Asia,” Easton writes. “Nuclear arms racing would start and could easily spiral out of control. The likelihood of World War Three breaking out could climb higher than anything previously seen,” Easton writes. He envisages that Japan would be forced to “go nuclear” and North Korea could seek China’s help to attack South Korea. “It is possible that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would [also] cause a 21st century version of the great depression. Globalisation would probably cease to exist as the world splintered into hostile trade and security blocs,” Easton warns. “Supply chains, already significantly impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, would be shattered,” he writes. The fall of Taiwan, Easton concludes, would undermine perceptions of the US as a world leader. “China would be viewed as the most powerful nation in the world and the primary mover of the 21st century,” he writes. The warning from the institute, founded in 1975, has coincided with a bleak assessment provided to Congress this month which revealed that the Pentagon has inadequate stocks of long-range anti-ship missiles for attacking and destroying Chinese warships engaged in an invasion of Taiwan. Pentagon war games designed for intervention in the event of an attack on Taiwan concluded US fighter bombers would need 1,000-1,200 long-range anti-ship missiles for the pilots to stay at a relatively safe distance from Chinese air defences, according to the testimony given to the House armed services committee. “The current US inventory contains less than 250 of these missiles,” the committee was told by a former senior US Navy commander. At the current rate of production – between 38 and 88 a year – the Pentagon would reach 1,200 of these vital missiles by 2035-2050 “which is a bit late for comfort”, the committee heard. Beijing has always said that reunification of Taiwan with the Chinese mainland, including by force if necessary, was a priority goal. Intensified PLA military invasion rehearsals in the last six months have suggested Beijing might have plans for reunification-by-force in the next two or three years. Admiral Gilday’s warning appeared to back that timetable. President Biden has on several occasions pledged that the US would defend Taiwan if the PLA launched an invasion, and in the light of that promise, given in off-the-cuff replies to questions from journalists, the Pentagon has plans to boost training for the Taiwanese defence forces. The 30 American military trainers currently in Taiwan are to be increased to around 200, according to reports. At the same time about 500 Taiwanese troops are expected to participate in training in the US later this year.