Sunday, 26 February 2023

Can Ukraine ever get Crimea back?

President Zelensky has said it a hundred times. The war in Ukraine cannot end until his forces have not only recovered all territory seized during the Russian invasion but have also liberated Crimea from Russian occupation. The latter demand is going to be the make-or-break issue for any "peace" settlement. Putin annexed it without a fight in 2014 and has no intention of ever giving it up. If he did so, willingly, he would no longer remain as president. In my view. So it will be the major sticking point for as long as Zelensky demands its return to Ukrainian sovereignty whether by force or by negotiation. So, total impasse. The US certainly has no idea as yet how to resolve this conundrum. Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, was asked this question and he didn't have an answer. He deliberately avoided the question, preferring to say that the focus right now was on Kyiv retrieving territory lost to the Russians in the east and south. Crimea would be discussed sometime later, he said. The 12-point peace plan put forward by China doesn't address this impasse, although it does say that a country's sovereignty needs to be honoured. Does Beijing accept that Crimea was unlawfully annexed in 2014 and, if so, would President Xi Zinping agree that Crimea belongs to Ukraine and should be handed back? Somehow I think not. So what on earth is going to happen to Crimea no one knows. Moscow has stuffed it with tens of thousands of troops, air defence systems and missiles, so I don't see Putin agreeing to even an inch of Crimean territory being handed back to Kyiv. If someone as clever as Jake Sullivan can't think of a Crimea resolution it's difficult to think of anyone coming up with a solution to please everyone.

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