Wednesday 22 February 2023

Is Putin's nuclear sabre-rattling just macho gamesmanship?

No one talks about Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) anymore. It was very much the lingo of the Cold War, an easy acronym to remind the world that the two biggest nuclear powers, the US and Russia, understood that the massive arsenals of nuclear weapons each nation held were there for deterrence not for war. War with strategic nuclear weapons would effectively bring the planet to an end. Thus the MAD concept was supposed to be kind of reassuring. They never would press the button, right? Because that way lies Armageddon. But Putin seems to have come round to the view that threatening to use nuclear weapons, or in his latest speech, hinting at the possibility of restarting nuclear testing and/or renewing the nuclear arms race is a perfectly legitimate strategy. Putin has around 6,000 nuclear warheads under his control and loves reminding the West of this power at his fingertips. It may look like dismissable macho gamesmanship but it's dangerous and unsettling and typical of a man who seems to care not a jot for world peace or for the safety and stability of this vulnerable planet. Suspending the New Strategic Arms Treaty signed by Obama and Putin's "predecessor" Dmitry Medvedev in 2010, is a further sign that the former KGB lieutenant-colonel is enjoying throwing his weight around. His hatred of the West is now so great that I cannot envisage any hope of relations improving between Moscow and western powers while he remains the boss of the Kremlin. Xi Zinping clearly believes this too which is why he is planning to visit his "dear friend" Vladimir Putin in Moscow in the months ahead. He will want to exploit the situation to his and China's advantage.

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