Monday, 7 November 2022

Trump waits in the wings with the midterms up for grabs

Anything could happen tomorrow at the US midterm elections. I doubt either the Republican party or the Democrats are absolutely confident of winning. That is, winning enough seats in the House of Representatives and Senate to grab the majority. At present the Democrats have control over both with the skin of their teeth. But they have one big disadvantage. It's common if not traditional for the governing party to lose popularity halfway through the first four years of its administration, so expectations will not be high anyway. But with the added factor of having nice old Joe Biden in the White Huouse, the Republicans have been having a ball knocking him down at every available opportunity, and voters may start to get the message - that old Joe is too old to carry on beyond the next two years and it's time to prepare for a Republican president. The midterms are nothing to do with the 2024 presidential election and everything to do with the 2024 election. You cannot separate one from the other, and if the Democrats lose the majority in both houses, as is being predicted, then the path to 2024 will seem pretty straight and narrow for the Republican nominated candidate which of course could be one Donald Trump. If by a miracle the Democats retain control of the House and the Senate - not an impossibility - then Trump will feel somewhat chagrined and might delay his announcement about the presidency. But it won't necessarily be all good news for Biden and his 2024 hopes because there isn't a single voter in the country who doesn't know that it's Biden's 80th birthday coming up this month and another six years on top of that would be, well...quite a gamble. If the Republicans win big time tomorrow and Trump gets his chosen candidates through then the 45th president (Trump) will definitely go for the White House in 2024. Not probably as he said the other day but absolutely definitely. As for Biden, a serious defeat for the Democrats in Congress would be writing on the wall for his future I suspect. With any luck, Trump's candidates will fail to win seats and Biden's lot will scrape through. It still doesn't mean Trump won't stand for the presidency but it might make him hesitate.

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