Washington's efforts for diplomatic solution in Ukraine

Washington’s apparent new diplomatic focus on ending the war in Ukraine is not what it seems. Rather than being the first step towards pressurising the Kyiv government to seek a negotiated settlement with Moscow, it is more a message directed at President Putin that he is never going to subjugate Ukraine. To back up this message, the administration of President Biden has authorised a significant leap in advanced weaponry for Kyiv to underline the US commitment to supply Ukraine with systems that will protect the country from attack in the long-term future from air and ballistic-missile strikes. In particular, the Pentagon this week announced the supply of four Avenger air-defence systems, launched from Humvee vehicles which can fire Stinger surface-to-air missiles. These could protect the capital Kyiv from Iran-provided kamikaze drone attacks and other forms of airstrikes. The timing of the new diplomatic efforts and the supply of sophisticated defensive weapons that will safeguard the capital, Kyiv, is not linked in any way to the better-than-predicted midterm election results in which the Republicans failed to sweep aside the Democrats and take unassailable control of both the House of Representatives and Senate. There were fears that bipartisan support for Ukraine might have weakened, making it more difficult for the US to stand firm against Moscow. But US diplomatic sources said the timing was more a function of the recent success Ukraine has had in the counter-offensive and the violent reaction Putin has pursued against civilian infrastructure. No pressure was being put on the Ukrainians while they were under constant air assault, the sources said. However, there seem to be mixed messages in Washington about the way forward for policy on Ukraine. The most notable intervention came on Wednesday from General Mark Milley, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, Biden’s principal military adviser. He urged an end to the appalling casualty toll and suggested now was the moment to grab the chance for peace before the winter sets in. Milley said that “well over” 100,000 Russian troops had been killed and wounded and that Ukraine had suffered the same number of casualties; plus about 40,000 Ukrainian civilians killed and up to 30 million displaced. His advice was, “to seize the moment”, to prevent further slaughter. But other officials are questioning whether now is the right time to even talk of a diplomatic end to the war when the Russians are evacuating the key strategic city of Kherson in the south and Putin’s objectives appear doomed to fail. Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, visited Kyiv last week and spoke with President Zelensky. But the US sources said the focus of Washington’s efforts was to make sure the Kyiv government hadn’t given up on the idea of a diplomatic solution, not advising them to start preparing for a deal. Biden added to the confusing signals when he said it remained to be seen “whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia”. However, compromise seems a long way away at this point. Despite the sombre news reaching Moscow every day from the war in Ukraine, Putin has shown no sign of giving up, let alone seizing the moment for a negotiated settlement, as Milley suggested.