Saturday, 9 January 2021

What are Trump's options?

It's countdown to decision time for Donald Trump. Eleven days to go before Joe Biden is inaugurated as 46th president. He could resign and let Mike Pence finish off the job until then. I can't see him doing that. Unless it's pointed out to him that if he did resign the Democrats might consider dropping the impeachment action which they hope to lay before Congress on Monday, charging him with incitement to cause violence. BUt like the first time he faced impeachment over the Trump campaign/Russsiagate affair and obstruction of justice, he just claimed it was a political witchhunt and the Republicans backed him. Would every Republican back him this time? No, there would be proud Republicans who would stand up for democracy and denounce Trump's actions. But not enough to make impeachment stick. So Trump won't resign and if he does face impeachment he would not be found guilty as charged. So if he stays till midnight January 19 and doesn't do anything distardly in the meantime, what then? He must be afraid of facing subsequent FBI investigations involving a multitude of alleged sins. Could he pardon himself and all his family? He is defnitely considering it according to a lot of reports in Washington. Theoretically he could do this, or Joe Biden could pardon him just for the sake of keeping Trump quiet provided he agreed a quid pro quo which would be to promise never to stand for the presidency again. Could Biden offer that? A large number of Democrats would oppose any suggestion of pardoning Trump. But it might be prudent for Biden if he wants a relatively peaceful first 100 days. I don't know the legal ins and outs for a deal of this kind. It would in many ways be a scandal to let Trump off the hook but in the real politik world, whatever happens to Trump, there will still be 74 million supporters who voted for him and they are not going to go away. They are going to remain a mighty political force for the foreseeable future. It's, if you like, Trump's main bargaining chip. If he resigns, he will massively disappoint his fans. So he won't. Full stop. Let the now hated Pence take over in his last week or so of office? No way. The one thing which everyone must be fearing is that thousands of his supporters will turn up in Washington on January 20 and try to disrupt the Biden inauguration ceremony although on this occasion the capital and Capitol will be awash with National Guardsmen as well as police. If Trump lifts so much as a fingernail to encourage/incite thousands of his fans to come to Washington to protest on January 20, he is going to have the Justice Department knocking on his door. His best option? Keep as quiet as a mouse for 11 days - not having his Twitter account will help - and creep away on January 19 with his fingers crossed that FBI agents are not tailing him.

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