Saturday, 26 September 2020

Biden sounds like he expects to win

The US presidential election campaign has reached a fascinating point. The first of the big TV debates between Trump and Biden will take place in Cleveland Ohio on Tuesday. But still the biggest and most interesting story is Trump's game-playing about whether he will stand down if he loses or whether he will find some legal or other reason for disputing the result if it goes against him and hanging on until it gets decided in the Supreme Court. The danger here for the Democrats and in particular for Biden is that they are beginning to sound too confident that Trump will lose. In fact Biden in a TV interview predicted that despite all the things the president has said about not necessarily leaving if he loses, Trump will step down peacefully in November. Biden clearly believes the polls and is fully expecting to beat Trump and become president in the normal way, leading to the traditional inauguration ceremony on January 20 2021. I think he said what he said to try and be nice to Trump and to paint him as a democratic president (with a small d) who will accept defeat gracefully. I think he must have said that with his fingers crossed under the table. Nobody really knows what Trump will do if he loses. If he loses really badly, then it's difficult to see how he can argue a case for asking the Supreme Court to decide. But if it's close then I fear we will have the full works, a mighty battle in the courts, with Trump staying on in the White House for as long as he can. It could be months of crazy government. The Republican hierarchy however are saying that there won't be a battle and that if the president loses he will go. All nice and quiet. It's what the constitution demands, they say. Yes, but this is Trump. He has given enough warning that he might not leave. The more confident-sounding Biden becomes that he will win might only encourage Trump to become more and more subversive, never mind the constitution.

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