Sunday 11 August 2019

Is the EU remotely interested in stopping a no-deal Brexit?

We've heard very little of what has been going on between Boris Johnson's Brexit negotiators and the EU counterparts but there has certainly been no breakthrough. Otherwise we would have been told. So the only impression one gets from the rhetoric is that Boris is never going to budge from his pledge to take the UK out of the EU by October 31, and the EU has made it clear it is not interested in changing anything from the existing withdrawal agreement signed by Theresa May. There is absolutely no sense of any interest by either side to reach a compromise. The reason, of course, is that there IS no compromise to be reached over the Irish backstop problem: guaranteeing an open border between north and south means Northern Ireland has to stay in the EU customs union, but that is unacceptable to the Protestant politicians in Ulster and unacceptable to the Boris Johnson government. So, you 27 EU leaders, are you going to try and think of a clever way out of this or are you resigned to a no-deal and to hell with it? My reading is that the EU is sick and tired of the UK and its refusal to do what it wants, and will therefore give Boris nothing. But I still don't get it. If the UK leaves with no deal, that surely means there have to be checks on the border between north and south Ireland. The EU will insist on it. Is the EU really thinking of the consequences when it blithely says it is fully prepared for a no-deal Brexit and has made all the necessary plans. So what is the EU plan for the Irish border issue post-October 31? The Republic of Ireland will still be a member of the EU, so it is obliged to act on its behalf. This is clearly what Boris is counting on. He wants to shove the no-deal Brexit in the faces of the 27 EU leaders and smother their stubborness with Irish backstop farmyard smells. I wonder if David Cameron, yes the David Cameron who agreed to hold a referendum on whether to stay or leave the EU, ever thought we would be in this position now. Did he think of the consequences for Northern Ireland in the event of a win for the Leavers? I feel absolutely certain he did not!

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