Thursday 8 August 2019

Britain facing an historic constitutional crisis

Britain is weeks away from the biggest constitutional crisis since the abdication of King Edward VIII on December 11 1936. There is a wholesale rebellion afoot, and the Queen might have to be drawn into it for the first time in her reign. Boris Johnson is sitting on a political precipice. He has a majority of ONE in the House of Commons and between now and October 31 he and his government are going to face a vote of no confidence because of what seems to be a mad rush towards a no-deal Brexit just for the sake of meeting Boris's pledge of leaving the European Union on October 31 come what may. The Labour Party and the Scottish Nationalists are now conspiring together to unseat the Boris government, with Labour offering the Scots Nats a second referendum to go independent if Jeremy Corbyn takes over in Number 10. It's politics at its worst. But, theoretically, the following could hapen: Labour calls for a vote of no confidence in the Boris government, well before October 31. The vote goes heavily against Boris, with Labour, the SNP and more than 20 Conservatives joining together to oust the government. Boris fghts back and says he won't resign. But the Labour leadership declares a constitutional crisis, and Jeremy Corbyn is sent off to Buckingham Palace (as John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor, has indicated) in a taxi to plead with Her Majesty to allow him to form a government. What will the Queen do? Involving the Queen, Head of State but with no political powers as such, will present a far bigger constitutional crisis for the country than the vote against the Boris government. I expect the Queen's constitutional advisers to tell her: "Ma'am, you cannot allow Mr Corbyn to form a new government until Mr Johnson has formally resigned as prime minister and has visited Your Majesty to hand over his resignation, as the constitution requires. Your only response to Mr Corbyn must be to tell him that you are not empowered to invite him to form a new government until the present government has stepped down. Or until there is a general election and the Tories lose." It would still be a massive embarrassment for the Queen because she would be placed in an invidious position, seeming to take sides when for the whole of her reign she has meticulously NOT taken sides on anything. By far the best option would be for the Queen's private secretary to inform Jeremy Corbyn's office before he sets off in a taxi to Buckingham Palace that the Queen will not be available for an audience and that if he turns up the police at the gate will not allow him in. Such a snub, were he to go anyway would be photographed by the world's cameras and would lead to massive headlines pouring scorn on the Labour leader. Even Corbyn would want to avoid that, although some in his party might then make the constitutional crisis even worse by denouncing the Queen. Poor Queen, she loses either way. But she needs to stand firm. No audience with Corbyn until Boris has been to the Palace to hand in his resignation. That's the protocol and Buckingham Palace is built on protocol. There are two other options to avoid such a crisis: The EU agrees to change the Irish backstop in the Brexit deal leading to an agreement approved by the House of Commons before October 31, OR Boris calls a snap election, also before October 31. Whoever wins can then go legitimately to see the Queen. Assuming the former won't happen, I fear the latter option willl lead to Corbyn taking a taxi ride to the Palace after all.

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