Tuesday 6 August 2019

Iran leader threatens a mother of all wars

I bet there was a hollow laugh in the White House when the president of Iran today promised that anyone taking on his country would face "a mother of all wars". That choice phrase will have rung a large bell in the minds of the Trump team. It was of course Saddam Hussein, long since departed from this Earth, who warned the US, before the 1991 Gulf War, that it would face "the mother of all battles" if it so much as dared to try and liberate Kuwait from Iraqi troop occupation. Well we know what happeed next. The US-led coalition entered Kuwait from Saudi Arabia and defeated Saddam's huge army in 100 days. It was the mother of all defeats, and Saddam was lucky that President George HW Bush felt the turkey-shoot of escaping Iraqi troops had gone on long enough and called a halt. Saddam survived in his Baghdad fortress for another 12 years. But if I remember right, he did not pledge a mother of all battles again when another US-led coalition was on the point of invading Iraq to topple him from power in 2003. But President Rouhani, the leader in Tehran, is perhaps not a student of history. He has come out with the same Saddam phraseology to warn off the Americans. I have absolutely no doubt that if Iran sufficiently provoked the US to fight a war, the Americans with, potentially, a small coalition by their side, would unleash another shock-and-awe war which would pulversie Iranian defences. I don't want a war, and nor does President Trump thankfully. But Rouhani still thought it was worth pointing out that if there WAS a war, Tehran's Republican Guard would put up a helluva fight. Well, Saddam's lot failed, and Rouhani's stormtroopers would also be crushed. Rouhani must know this but he stil issued his mother-of-all threat just for good measure. Perhaps he has forgotten that Iran and Iraq fought what seemed like an endless war in the 1980s and neither side came out victorious. So if Iran couldn't defeat Iraq, it has no chance whatsoever of defeating the US. I somehow doubt the Iranian people have the same faith in their military, despite the money spent on training and arming the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Threatening the mother-of-all anything is just rhetoric and no one, Rouhani, is impressed. But watch out, Trump has another 17 months to go before being reelected or ousted, and his patience might suddenly run out. I can imagine him sitting in the White House situation Room developing a mother-of-all temper when his military advisers tell him Tehran is about to build a nuclear bomb. Under such circumstances I can't see him delaying the military option. Then Rouhani's rhetoric would seriously be put to the test.

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