Sunday 15 October 2017

What does Putin really think?

All this focus on North Korea and Iran and Trump's warlike tendencies, it would be intriguing to know what President Putin really thinks about it all. Trying to get into the Russian leader's mind is clearly difficult, if not impossible. But we do know that Putin's great dream is to turn Russia into a major power once again, a new form of Soviet Union with satellite states happy to be Putin-controlled or at least Putin-patronised. But he is somewhat challenged in this effort because of the Russian economy which has been battered by the drop in oil prices, sanctions by the West for his Crimean and Ukrainian military interventions, as well as bad financial management and corruption. But he must also spend time on worrying about what Trump will do next, and whether the genuine threat from North Korea and the anger in Iran over the US president's dismissal of the nuclear deal could have an impact on his plans for Russia, and, most importantly, his desire to stay president for as long as possible. Putin is not going to retire...ever. My conclusion is that Putin is probably seriously concerned about both Iran and North Korea. It's not in Russia's security interests to have a nuclear-bomb-possessing Iran which shares its northern border with three former Soviet states, nor would Putin want a war on the Korean peninsula, any kind of war, either conventional or, especially nuclear. So, President P, how about some Moscow diplomacy? Kim Jong-il, father to Kim Jong-un, once took a train - the Kim dynasty, heavy-armoured train - all the way to Moscow. This was in 2001. Nobody really knows whether the journey was worth it, it was all very secret. But perhaps, assuming the train is still around, Putin could get on the phone and invite Kim Jong-un to Moscow. It would be a sensational move. The "Rocket Man" on his train going for talks with Putin. The world would hold its breath. Of course, Kim might turn down the invite, but it just might be tempting for him. As for Iran, I doubt Putin could do much with Ayatollah Khamenei, but the way things are right now between Tehran and Washington, he'd probably have a better chance to bend his ear than either Trump or Rex Tillerson. After all, Russia signed the Iran nuclear deal. Putin must have thought it was a good idea. So, President P, time for some dazzling diplomacy.

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