Saturday 14 October 2017

Was the Iran nuclear deal naive?

When some of the most brilliant minds from the US, China, Russia, UK, France and Germany (at least I assume there were some brilliant minds) got together to negotiate the Iran nuclear deal, I assume they thought it through and worked out what all the potential benefits would be. But did they really, that's what worries me? I am pretty sure that everyone, or actually mostly the Americans - John Kerry and co - held to the notion that if Tehran could be persuaded to hold back on their suspected nuclear weapons programme in return for lots of cash once sanctions had been lifted, Iran and its leaders would feel so warm towards the US and the other big powers and life in general that they would stop doing what they had been doing ever since the revolution in 1979 when men with long beards took over the country from the West-supported Shah of Iran. In other words, cause trouble everywhere and foment revolutionary thoughts throughout the Middle East. The Revolutionary Guard Corps, and in particular the dangerously active Quds Force, is a byword for violent intervention and skulduggery. The Quds Force which reports directly to Ayatalloh Ali Khamenei is like a combination of Russia's Spetnaz special forces and the old-style KGB. Trump is dying to put them on America's global terrorism list. Anyway, I think the Iran deal negotiators must have thought that the Ayatollah would wake up after the nuclear agreement had been signed in 2015 and think to himself: "Ok, let's give up all this nasty stuff and join the international community and start loving everyone. I'll ring the Quds Force straightaway." If they thought that they were kidding themselves. People with revolution in their blood don't become ordinary citizens overnight. To them, the nuclear deal was a nuclear deal, nothing else. There was no clause, no sub-section, no annexe, no footnote which said: "We also agree to stop sponsoring terrorist organisations and to work for peace in Syria." So if that was in the dreams of the Big Power negotiators when they persuaded Tehran to limit all their nuclear-enrichment and other potential weapon-linked activities for ten years (yes, ten years), then they were naive. The Quds Force is busier than ever, their budget has been increased, they are threatening US warships in the Gulf as often as they want, they are scheming in Iraq and Syria etc etc. This is what annoys Trump, no, enrages Trump. Why sign a deal which still allows the Revolutionary Guards to wage their wars in the Middle East? He's right, but then the terms of the nuclear negotiations were restricted to the nuclear programme from the very beginning. The rest was just wishful thinking on the part of Kerry and co. So that's where we are today. The other powers have reacted negatively to Trump's Friday speech which has provided Iran with the perfect response. They will stick with the deal, they say, making America's negotiating partners feel good about themselves, and Trump is on his own. Perfect for Tehran.

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