Does Trump really think North Korea will scrap its nukes?

Donald Trump is hanging on desperately to his "friendship" with Kim Jong-un, expecting their mutual liking for each other (allegedly) to lead to a great foreign policy coup, the denuclearisation of North Korea. The trouble is, everything else to do with the North Korea issue has gone wrong. Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, has got bogged down in his negotiations with North Korean officials, and the upcoming meeting has been cancelled by Trump. Jim Mattis has talked about possibly restarting the US/South Korean military exercises (much to Trump's displeasure), and Kim is getting on with his ballistic missile production. In fact very little has really moved since the Trump/Kim summit in Singapore in June. A few body remains of US soldiers from the Korean war have been returned, and activity has been observed at a missile engine site which may have something to do with dismantling it. But we've yet to see the pictures. So it's a pretty dismal situation and, despite Trump's insistence that he and Kim are best mates, it's not going anywhere. That doesn't mean all is lost, these sort of negotiations can take years. But so far there's no promising sign that Kim is going to scrap any of his nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles.

Civilian casualties in Yemen are grotesquely high

James Mattis, the US defence secretary, promised during a press briefing at the Pentagon yesterday, that the US was doing all it could to make sure the number of civilian casualties in Yemen was kept to the minimum. The British government has said the same. Yet their promises are falling on dead ground - ground littered with innocent victims. There is no such thing as a safe war, and no wars have ever been fought without there being civilian fatalities. But in the case of Yemen, the US and Britain, and also France, are providing the means to kill but are not actually participating. Bombs and missiles have UK or US stamped on them, precision weapons sold in multi-billion dollar arms deals with Saudi Arabia and it's these munitions which every day are killing and injuring civilians. The Saudis simply do not share the same "collateral damage" philosophy followed by the UK and US. They are given advice by American and British military advisers but at the end of each day it's the Saudi pilots who press the button to release the bombs. The battleground below is complex. The Islamic Houthi rebels are trying to take over the country and destroy the government of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi who is in exile. A Saudi-led coalition of more than half a dozen other Arab states launched an air campaign to try and restore the Hadi government. The bombing has been relentless. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Isis have benefited from the chaos that has ensued and are entrenched in the south. They face bombing, too, but by American special operations forces using armed drones. While the slaughter continues, life for the Yemeni people is a constant struggle for survival. The remarks by Mattis yesterday provide small consolation. He said US support for the Saudi-led coalition would continue. The war in Yemen will carry on for years with neither side winning and the casualties will go on and on and on. Yemen used to be a wonderful country. It is now the scene of wholesale killing.

Will Trump win a Bafta for his Nafta deal?

Donald Trump knows how to bully to get his way. Canada used to be a much-loved ally of the United States but Trump has had it in for America's neighbour ever since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told the G7 summit of most developed countries that he wouldn't be pushed around by the US president. Trump put a big cross against Canada and set about forging a revised North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), by persuading Mexico to sign up to a new deal and then threatened to leave out the Canadians. Poor Canada. The foreign minister Chrystia Freeland had to hop onto a plane as fast as she could to get to Washington to find out what the hell was going on. Canada will be forced to give in if it wants to stay in the new-look Nafta which will be given a different name, probably something with Trump in it. Bully boy tactics come easy to Trump and he will be pleased to be getting back at Trudeau who dared to raise his voice against him. Mexico has given in because it has been bullied more than any other country, friend or foe. Immigration, The Wall, drugs gangs, Mexico has had the lot thrown at them. Trump will get his way with Canada because he knows that Canada cannot afford to be left out of a free-trade agreement. After 19 months in power, Trump is not making friends anywhere. But for sheer Trumpery, the new Nafta is a Bafta performance.

John McCain deserved more than sympathy from Trump

There are times to be brutal, there are times to be indifferent and there are times to be magnanimous and gracious. Donald Trump chose indifference when marking the death of Senator John McCain. Everyone but Trump has aknowledged that McCain, while he had his faults and weaknesses, was nevertheless an icon in American politics, a man with a huge reputation for integrity, courage, patriotism and driven devotion to the US military. He is a massive loss to the nation. But Trump offered just sympathy to his family and vetoed a White House eulogy of his career and achievements. McCain was no friend of Trump's, that's for sure. But McCain's passing surely gave Trump a chance to say that the senator had been a great man whether he liked him or not. But he just couldn't say it. So it's not surprising he won't be invited to the funeral or memorial service. Every other former president has been effusive in their praise of McCain. It's a sad day when the encumbent president cannot voice the same affection for a man who strived all his working life to serve his nation. McCain was an extraordinary character. He wanted to be president but failed, the second time after making the mistake of appointing Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential candidate and having the bad luck to face Barack Obama as his opponent. By all accounts he had a fearsome temper which might have caused problems had he made it to the White House. But other presidents have had tempers, Nixon, for a start, and even Obama was known to get angry. But my personal view, having spent three years as Pentagon Correspondent for The Times in Washington, is that John McCain would have made a fine president. I wish I could say the same about the current president who didn't have the grace to say kind words about McCain on his passing. Even his wife, Melania, thanked him for his service!!

Rats are on the increase in Washington

Washington has always had problems with rats. The capital was built on a swamp, so rats feel it is their natural habitat. Now there are so many rats milling around, the clean-up authorities are having to think up new ways of getting rid of them. Donald Trump is also worried about rats. He believes he is surrounded by rats. Not the small sniffy-nose long-tailed type but his closest aides and legal advisers who are turning against him like, well, rats leaping from a sinking ship. It's a good lesson to learn, Mr Prsident, that your worst enemies can sometimes be your best friends because if they "betray" you for whatever reason - fear of prison, Damascene conversion to the other side, nasty FBI types - they know more about you than your normal enemies. So beware beware of pissing off your trusted supporters and advisers. I wonder who Trump really trusts right now. He has got all types of White house people to sign confidentiality documents, but that seems to make little difference. So, can he trust the First Lady, the First Son-in-Law, the First Son? Well probably for the moment. But who knows for how much longer. Melania must be getting seriously angry about all the women allegations, but she can't squeal to the FBI because a wife's evidence isn't valid in law. So outside the family who can Trump turn to and know for absolutely sure that he or she won't run off to Robert Mueller and reveal all? Despite all the rumours of internal feuds in is administration, I reckon he can count on his chief of staff General John Kelly because Kelly is an honourable man who owes loyalty to his commander-in-chief. Well done, Kelly, for staying in the job after all, despite the rumours of his imminent departure last month. I put Jim Mattis in the same bracket, and probably Mike Pompeo and Nikki Hayley. For the moment. But if it gets very very bad for Trump and there are real stirrings for impeachment, how many of these trusted souls will want to stay on for a second term of Trumpism?

UK seems resigned to a break-out no Brexit deal

It is surely one of the most despicable abdications of political responsibility for ministers of the British government to casually announce that as a Brexit deal now looks increasingly unlikely that it's time to warn of the dire consequences, and to outline the steps that will need to be taken, none of which are good for this country or for individual citizens. Now it may be necessary to say this because of pressure on businesses and industry but the overall message to all of us is that the government is now more interested in the worst-case scenario than reaching a proper, effective and beneficial deal with the EU. What a state we are in, this poor country of ours. There is noone with the leadership quality to negotiate a decent exit from the EU. The soft exit advocated by Theresa May was neither acceptable to the Leavers nor to the EU. A hard exit might be more loyal to the alleged mandate from the disastrous referendum but would bring so many uncertainties. But a no-deal Brexit, now the most talked about option, would surely be catastrophic. Why is the Brexit Secretary even mentioning it when it his HIS job to make sure we do get a proper deal. Is Dominic Raab, the man with this job, the right individual to give us all a happy future? No, absolutely no. He is not an inspirational politician. I preferred David Davis. So under Raab and Theresa May we have the prospect of crashing out of the EU with no agreement. If Labour were to win an election, they would be no better, probably worse. There is only one answer: a second referendum and a resounding YES to stay in the EU after all. That has to be our future. Otherwise it's a gloomy future for us all.

Moves at the top at the CIA

The top leadership tier of the CIA is to be exclusively made up of career intelligence officers, with no outsiders brought in to the agency for the first time for many years. Gina Haspel who took over as director of the CIA in May is herself a veteran spy who worked her way up to the top job after joining the intelligence agency in 1985. Now she has moved to make sure that the most senior members of her leadership team are all career officers. The CIA confirmed in a statement that her deputy is Vaughn Bishop who is one of the agency’s most experienced intelligence analysts. He had worked closely with Haspel in the past when she was serving as an undercover spy on foreign assignments. Bishop joined the CIA in 1981. He retired in 2011 but returned to serve as the agency’s ombudsman for “analytic objectivity”, before being offered the deputy job. Andy Makridis has been appointed the new chief operating officer. He is also a CIA veteran of 32 years, underlining Haspel’s wish to have career agency people around her. Haspel took over as director from Mike Pompeo who had never worked for the CIA, although as a former Republican member of the House intelligence committee, he had deep knowledge of the agency’s operations. Pompeo, now secretary of state, brought in a businessman friend, Brian Bulatao, to be the CIA’s chief operating officer. Haspel was, of course, Pompeo’s deputy. Bulatao has now moved to a senior government management position. In recent administrations, CIA directors have often been outsiders. For example, General David Petraeus, former commander in Iraq and Afghanistan, was appointed CIA director by President George W Bush, although it seemed a strange move at the time. And of course he didn't last long after he was forced to resign over his affair with his biographer Paula Broadwell. Leon Panetta, ex-chief of staff to President Clinton and a former director of the office of management and budget. was appointed CIA director by President Obama. John Brennan who took over from Petraeus as CIA director, had worked for the intelligence agency for 25 years, but had left in 2005. He was brought back by Obama after serving as homeland security adviser in the White House. But, for his deputy, Brennan chose David Cohen from the US Treasury. Cohen was an expert in tracing financing networks used by terrorist organisations. But Haspel has gone for veteran CIA people for her top leadership because she obviously feels that insiders are family. Haspel also announced the appointment of Sonya Holt to be the CIA's chief diversity and inclusion officer. She joined the CIA 34 years ago. A CIA source said: "The top three at the CIA have about 100 years of service between them."