Wednesday, 5 August 2026
Iran and Oman will do a deal never mind Donald Trump
It doesn't seem to matter any more what Donald Trump says or threatens, the war is going to stop between the US and Iran with the following result: the Strait of Hormuz will be under the control of Iran on the north side and Oman on the south side and both will charge shipping companies "service fees", the half-ton of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium will remain in Iran, buried for the moment under piles of crumbled concrete and earth, the new regime in Tehran will survive and become evem more anti-US and anti-Israel and will continue to threaten the whole region, and Iran's ballistic missile production will keep going. Therefore, nothing, apart from a huge amount of damage to Iran's weapons infrastructure, navy and air defence systems, will have been achieved to ensure any form of lasting peace. Iran will remain the biggest threat to the Middle East and will claim a sort of victory over the US. It's difficult to see how Trump can engineer any other conclusion to this disastrous war.
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