Friday, 7 August 2026

Iran is going to set new rules for the Strait of Hormuz reopening

It might seem as if a deal between Iran and Oman over the management and administration of the Strait of Hormuz is going to lead to the instant reopening of the chokepoint and a return to the flow of shipping to pre-Iran-war levels. No such luck. Tehran has a much broader concept in mind which will become clear very soon. To further humiliate President Trump, it looks like the Iranian negotiators want the reopening of the strait to be directly linked to every word in the now-maligned Memorandaum of Understanding signed by the US and Iran om June 17. That would mean the US agreeing to lift the naval blockade, allow full exporting of Iranian oil and the unfreezing of financial assets. Iran believes it to be in the ascendancy over the US, so the imminent Iran/Oman arrangement which is bound to include a facility for charging shipping companies for services rendered, will be dependent on a much broader deal with the US, before the strait is fully reopened. This will be the worst outcome for Trump and a huge victory for Tehran. How on earth did it get to this point?

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