Monday, 16 December 2024
Who will Syrian rebel leader Jolani turn to for help?
If Mohammed al-Jolani, the Syrian rebel leader, really wants to bring peace and stability for the Syrian people (and he seems to), then who is he going to turn to for help, strategic, military, economic and everything else? He and the transitional government can't do it alone, not after decades of repression and civil war and infrastructure destruction and interference from every quarter. Will he turn to Arab nations, or Russia, or Iran or the US or the United Nations or the European Union, or Turkey? Putin is desperate to hang on to the two bases granted to him on a leasehold arrangement by Bashar al-Assad. So, Moscow is no doubt offering Jolani and co all the help it needs. The US is offering help, tentatively because Washington wants more reassurance that Jolani's soothing words will be followed by action. The UK has already offered £50 million for humanitarian aid. But it will be Turkey that wins out more than any other country. Turkey's leader, President Erdogan, backed the HTS rebel force to seize Damascus and will reap the rewards. While, on the surface, this is good news, Turkey is after all a member of Nato and a serious player, Erdogan has his own ambitions, notably to drive all Kurds away from the Turkish border and to suppress what he regards as a terrorist force trying to set up an independent state inside Turkey. So there will be some quid pro quos. Erdogan will help Jolani but in return he will want carte blanche to sort out the Kurdish issue in Turkey's favour. Erdogan will do it anyway, but getting full support from the new government in Damascus will make it look more legitimate. The Syrian people want peace more than anything but for the moment Jolani and co are at the mercy of far bigger powers rushing to take advantage of the fall of Assad.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment