Monday, 9 December 2024
Syria's future - terrorist state or democratic state?
Three things that never happen after a longstanding dictator and his regime fall after a violent uprising is peace, stability and tranquillity. First there is chaos, then there there is violence as different groupings rival for power or power-sharing, then there's retribution, and finally, all the hopes of freedom and security in the eyes and voices of the people gradually fade and it's back to terror and anguish and anarchy. See what happened in Libya for example. It's going to take a long time for Syria to settle down to some form of normality after the end of the Assad regime. For a start there are too many different factions with all their individual objectives and ideologies. The Kurds in the north struglling for autonomny, Isis battling to make a comeback, and a myriad other groups who won't necessarily be happy with whatever the coup leader does in Damascus. The leader of Hayat Tahrir-al Shams (HTS), Abu Mohammad al-Jowlani whose real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa, seems highly respected by his followers and fighters judging by his triumphant entry into Damascus. But governing the whole country is going to be a huge, if not imoossible, challenge. What experience does he have in running a country? None. So he will have to rely on the large Syrian civil service, including the encumbent prime minister, to run the show for him while he tries to sort out his priorities and who he is going to listen to most from the outside world - the US, Russia or China, or no one.
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