Thursday, 12 December 2024
The New Year must be better for the people of Gaza, Ukraine and Syria
This has been a terrible year for war. 2024 will go down in history as the year of death and desctruction and inhumamity and rage. But there is now more hope that 2025 could be a year of wars coming to an end, at least in Gaza, Syria and Ukraine. Syria remains a big question mark for now because there are so many different factions with different ambitions in the country. Whoever is in control in Damascus is not in control of the whole country, and that may not change in 2025. But at least, with any luck, there will be a less autocratic, more people-conscious and even election-interested government which will make the lives of the Syrian people easier, more hopeful and less fearful. Much will depend on what other extremist militia groups do to try and take advantage of the transitioning government in Damascus, notably Isis which has a history of grabbinbg territory when it sees an opportunity. If the 900 US special forces troops are allowed by Donald Trump to stay in their bases in northern and eastern Syria, they will continue to play a part in stemming any new Isis ambitions. As for Gaza, I think there is a good chance that by the turn of the year, there will be a deal of some sort to stop the fighting and get the remaining hostages released. But it could all go wrong. If there is a deal, then poor Gaza is going to need a massive reconstruction programme. Israel should be one of the countries obliged to contribute towards the cost. Ukraine is probably the most complex war to resolve because if Vladimir Putin is not prepared to negotiate - and that is a possibility - the war will go on whatver Trump says or tries to do. But the signs are reasonably positive. And again, a huge reconstruction programme will be required. Russia will not pay a rouble towards it.
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