Trump and the nuclear codes

Congress is suddenly getting jumpy about Trump and nuclear weapons. No, not Kim Jong-un's nukes, Trump's nukes. As US commander-in-chief, he can loose off as many nukes as he wants without consulting Congress, or seeking consensus with Jim Mattis, his Defence Secretary, and HR McMaster, his National Security Adviser. If he is told the US is in mortal danger of an imminent nuclear attack or if he feels the circumstances are right to launch a preempive nuclear strike, then he has the right and the power to make up his own mind. That has been the case with every president since nukes were invented, but the current president has proven to be so unpredictable and so unmanageable that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee decided it was time to discuss the issue. Today's committee meeting is entitled: Authority to Order the Use of Nuclear Weapons. They already know the answer to all their questions - Yes, he can - but the mere fact that they are debating the issue at all is because they are seriously afraid, it seems, that Trump might do something foolish, like order a nuclear attack for the wrong reasons! I think the senators are overdoing the worry bit, but it's certainly prudent for all of us to remember the power that the president of the United States has to "destroy North Korea", as he once threatened to do. You can't actually destroy a whole country unless you use nuclear weapons. Ergo, Trump must have had nukes in mind when he said it. The protocol for launching nuclear weapons was set up solely to take into account the fact that if Russia or China, for whatever reason, decided to attack the US with nuclear weapons in a first-strike launch, the president would have less than 30 minutes to decide what to do before the ICBMs startd crashing down onto American cities. THIRTY MINUTES! That really doesn't give much time for a chat with Jim Mattis, or a lengthy debate in the White House Situation Room, let alone a telephone call with key members of Congress. Thirty minutes become 20 minutes in, well, just ten minutes, and then suddenly the spots on the radar seem to be getting bigger and bigger and closer and closer. So, under those circumstances, the president would have little choice but to launch a mass retaliatory nuclear strike himself and fire off every missile interceptor available. But not even the most paranoid senator, Democrat or Republican, can really think that Trump would want to unleish Armaggedon like a modern-day Dr Strangelove by launching a preemptive strike on some personal whim.Nevertheless, for the uninitiated, here's the procedure that Trump would need to follow: An emergency meeting would be held with key advisers, including Mattis, McMaster, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs and others, and the commander of US Strategic Command would outline the nuclear attack options. With the minutes ticking by, the president would have to absorb all the pros and cons in a matter of moments and, if resolved to launch, whether advised to do so or not, all he would have to do is summon the military officer carrying the so-called nuclear football - an easy process because the officer in question is by his side always. The football which is really a briefcase containing the communications for a nuclear strike would be opened by the aide and presented to Trump. Then he would swiftly search for the codes, contained in a credit-card style plastic device called the "biscuit" which he is supposed to have on his person at all times. The codes would be transmitted to military officers at the Pentagon and Strategic Command, which not only confirm his identity but provide authorisation for a nuclear launch. That's it. In a Hollywood film, the military guys at the Pentagon would refuse to obey the president's orders and by some miracle the world would be saved. In real life, the officers would press the button!

Kim suffers defection

Dear Kim Jong-un, this is just to let you know that one of your trusted soldiers, guarding your side of the Demilitarised Zone, has defected to South Korea. I'm telling you in case your military chiefs have failed to notify you out of sheer terror that they will be blamed. Which they will. Basically he got fed up standing guard like a zombie staring like a waxwork model at his South Korean counterparts staring back at him and decided that there was probably more to life and that if there was more to life there was a better chance of finding it in South Korea than the dreadful North. He had apparently heard about Netflix and was determined to watch every drama series going before he departed this world. The defection of the soldier is only one of three North Korean military chaps to make the break across the DMZ since the end of the Cold War. It's potentially quite easy to run across the relatively short distance of the Joint Security Area in the centre of Panmunjom DMZ which is shared by the two sides in a grim face-off pantomime. But it's also potentially fatal because his comrades have guns and tend to fire them whenever anyone from their side looks like he's about to launch off into the arms of the South Korean soldiers. Sure enough, your man was shot twice, once in the elbow and once in the shoulder, but you will be devastasted to know that your soldiers are lousy shots and he's not going to die and is receiving the best hospital treatment South Korea can provide. Now, I'm not saying this is the greatest coup for the South Koreans. This poor disillusioned soldier probably knows nothing of any great intelligence. After all, all he did was turn up for work each day and try not to sneeze anywhere in the DMZ. He will know nothing about your nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programme, and won't even know what you have for breakfast. But it's all about propaganda, you see. You'll understand that! Especially coming only a few days after Donald Trump was in South Korea, warning you not to trust your luck against the mighty US. So it will no doubt irritate you somewhat and you'll probably blame the US whatever the circumstances. By the way, in case you hadn't noticed, there's a wonderful picture of the DMZ taken by Reuters which shows South Korean soldiers on one side of a high security fence and a large flock of birds on the north side. It's my belief that the birds have collected there to make a midnight escape across the wire. Their defection may go unnoticed but it will be another major propaganda blow for you.

Who is lying: Putin or the CIA?

I once asked a senior member of Britain's secret intelligence service how they went about their business. One thing he said was that they were trained to lie on behalf of HM Government, as well as carry out illegal acts abroad to uncover secrets that would help Britain's foreign and economic policy. James Bond lying? Surely not. Well, this is the espionage world, full of conspiracy and covert agent-running and developing contacts at the highest level in foreign governments. So, President Trump, when Vladimir Putin told you it was absolutely not true that Russia had interfered in the US 2016 election, he was replying to your questions as a trained KGB man. Lieutenant-Colonel Putin of the KGB was and is a trained liar. That's what they do, and they do it extremely well, just as the KGB's counterparts in the west lie. So, first of all, there's no point in asking Putin whether his cyber-warfare flunkeys took part in subterfuge to disrupt the US elections and make sure Trump won the presidency because the reply will always be whatever suits Putin's position. He is never going to say: "Sorry, Donald, I've been lying all along, I did it because I wanted you to be president, not that ghastly Hillary Clinton." So, the reply you got from Putin on this latest occasion was never going to be the truth and nothing but the truth. Trump appears to have gone along with his Russian buddy's response by publicly declaring that Putin had denied interfering and that was that. He didn't actually say he believed the Russian leader but he didn't say he didn't either. What a convoluted tangle. Just to make sure it didn't sound as if he was accusing the CIA, FBI and NSA of lying when they all agreed Russia HAD interfered in the election, Trump said he fully supported the US intelligence services. But you can't have it both ways, Mr President. Either you believe, and sincerely believe, your own intelligence services or you don't. Either you believe everything Putin says as gospel or you don't. You can't have it both ways. But then the declaration that Russia had been involved in some skulduggery during the election was made during the administration of President Barack Obama. So Trump probably thinks it was all a political stunt by Obama and his top spies to embarrass him. If that really was the case, then the US is in trouble because a huge amount of American foreign and domestic policy is forged on the basis of intelligence supplied by the CIA, FBI and NSA. If everything they do is politicised, they cannot be trusted. Trump once implied that US spies couldn't be trusted because they claimed Saddam Husein had weapons of mass destruction when he didn't. OK, fair enough, but I firmly believe that America's intelligence services, as well as the intelligence services of Britain, France, Germany etc etc, WERE convinced of the presence of weapons of destruction based on the secret material they were receiving. They were wrong, they put two and two together and made ten, they assumed everything they were receiving was sound intelligence, and they failed to get first-hand evidence: ie no single Western intelligence officer was able to say, hand on heart, that he or she had actually seen a warehouse full of biological and nuclear weapons, and had taken photographs of long-range ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads at the top. No, it was all word of mouth, and the mouths were telling lies. But that still doesn't mean the intelligence services themselves were lying in order to please their political masters, especially President George W Bush and Tony Blair. They weren't lying, they were duped, like the rest of us. So, President Trump, decide once and for all. Do you believe your own intelligence services or do you believe Putin? Once you have made up your mind, please tell us. A tweet will do.

Carrier triplets in action

Tomorrow is going to be a special day in the Western Pacific. Three, yes three, US Navy aircraft carrier battle groups will begin a naval exercise, showing off the incredible potency of these vast warships, each with up to 90 aircraft on board and an arsenal of Tomhawk land-attack cruise missiles on the escort guided-missile destroyers, cruisers and nuclear submarines. That's a whole war machine right in front of the eyes of Kim Jong-un, President Xi Zinping and anyone else in the region who has reason to fear, hate or depend on the United States. The three carriers are the USS Ronald Reagan which is the US Navy's forward-deployed carrier on station in Japan, USS Nimitz and USS Theodore Roosevelt. Three mighty platforms all together, strutting their stuff in international waters. The US Navy says having three carriers together like that hasn't happened in the Western Pacific since exercises in 2006 and 2007. Apart from providing a golden opportunity to coordinate warfare tactics and fill the skies with fast jets, the military showcase will remind the North Korean leader that a false move by him could bring the wrath of Trump's Pentagon down on his head. Symbolism can be effective or it can be dangerous, depending on who it is aimed at. For President Xi it will reconfirm for him the need to push ahead as fast as his shipyards can go to get more carriers on the high seas. He is undoubtedly green with envy that the US has ten carriers and will probably spend the day trying to ignore the pictures on CNN and dreaming of the time when China will be abe to match the US, carrier for carrier. As for Kim Jong-un, he doesn't have any carriers and never will. But he will be smiling with some satisfaction that the reason for the presence of three American aircraft carriers on his horizon is because of the success he has had in developing nuclear warheads and long-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying them. Three aircraft carriers together don't have as much killing power as a single nuclear ICBM landing on a US city. That is probably his way of thinking. Hopefully the carrier exercises which will last from November 11-14 will go ahead without any stupid gesture of defiance from Kim.

Trump's Chinese take-away

I know Trump is due to meet up with Putin, but judging by the all the fawning going on in Beijing, I reckon the US president has decided that if there's going to be a big love-in with any of his counterparts in the world it has to be President Xi Zinping. The Chinese leader has more to offer than Putin, and with China's economy set to go up, up and away, it makes more sense to talk high politics with the Chinaman than with the Russian whose economy is shakey to say the least. If there's going to be a diplomatic breakthrough with Kim Jong-un it's more likely to come from a Beijing/Washington offensive than a Moscow/Washington duet. The clearest sign that Trump has gone all lovey-dovey with Xi was his bizarre admission that it was America's fault that there was such a big trade imbalance between the two countries, not China's fault. Yet until now, Trump has been swearing blue murder at Beijing for being the Bad Boys in the trading inequalities. In the election campaign he threatened all kinds of trouble for China over trade and currency manipulation, let alone a military face-off over the South China Sea islands dispute. But he arrived in Beijing to a huge red carpet welcome, and before you can say boo to a goose, Trump is falling over with love and devotion for the smiling Xi. It's all a bit hypocritical and paradoxical but who else is Trump going to link arms with? Putin should have been The One but that has become increasingly difficult as the KGB Pootin Interference in Elections Gang has been exposed. Trump had a go at making big friends with the Japanese and South Korean prime ministers, but they're both shorter, and Trump never seemed quite to know whether to hug them or bow his head, and he's not a bowing-head type. Unlike Obama who knew when to come down from his great elegant height and make a suitable bowing movement. Heaven knows what Trump will do when he meets Queeen Elizabeth who is tiny. So, getting back to high politics, there is no one in Europe who Trump fancies being chums with. Not even with Macron although they got on fine on Bastille Day. Certainly not Angela Merkel who seems to shudder at the mention of the Trump word, and definitely not Theresa May who might not be around much longer judging by the superior, sniffy comments being made in Brussels. The presidents and prime ministers of almost anywhere else are not worth cultivating. You can't be buddy buddy with Bibi Netanyahu - far too one-sided. So that leaves dear smiling Xi, the Supreme Panda. Let's hope Trump's gamble proves fruitful.

Fog of war

Ho ho ho, so fog foiled Trump's little game plan. He planned all along to visit the Demilitarised Zone at Panmunjom, separating North and South Korea, but got his White House flunkeys to tell the media that he was far too busy to go there. I knew his instincts would be to try and make the traditional presidential trip to the DMZ. It's what US presidents do. But for once I thought Trump had given in to wiser counsel because of the heightened tension between Trump and Kim Jong-un. But no, Trump dismissed the advice and said he wanted to helicopter in and bring all the travelling press with him. But God in his wisdom blanketed the North Korean/South Korean border in thick fog and thwarted his plans. The whole helicopter caravan had to turn back. The language must have been blue in the Trump chopper. Actually it was pretty scary. The helicopter pilots said they couldn't see each other. They were flying blind which could have led to a total disaster, like a mid-air collision, so the sensible decision was taken, and Trump headed off to Beijing after another stopover meeting in South Korea. The incident has served as a reminder of how the weather can play such a crucial role in wars. Had Trump ordered an invasion of North Korea on that very day, using attack helicopters etc, would the fog have delayed the offensive? You bet it would have! Fog is a killer for flying, for dropping laser-guided weapons (lasers don't see through thick fog}, for screwing up ground-troop advances and even for overflying satellites. So Trump was foiled, and Kim probably had a good laugh. The fog of war doesn't have to involve actual fog, but the end result is the same - confusion and mistakes and bad moods. Poor old Trump, his grand moment of theatre taken from him. The only thing of real interest that emerged during the South Korean leg of his Asia trip was his remark to a South Korean audience: "Ultimately, it will all work out." What can that mean? Was this Trump making a throwaway remark without any real content or was he giving way a Big Secret. In other words, diplomatic efforts are beginning to get somewhere with Kim, and if so, whose efforts are they? Is there a secret US delegation even now in Pyongyang? There has been no hint of it to the US media, but who knows. One thing that can be said for certain is that the Little Rocket Man has not fired off a test ballistic missile for two whole months. Hmmm very interesting!

Is Trump wise to meet Putin again?

Trump wants to meet with Putin even though some officials are advising against it. So the get-together WILL happen at the Asian economic summit in Vietnam towards the end of the president's round-Asia trip. The last time they met was at the G20 summit in Hamburg in July. So, in my view, it would be pretty pathetic for Trump to snub Putin this time round just because of all the headlines back home about Russia's interference in the US presidential election and the alleged collusion between Trump's campaign team and Moscow. All the diplomats who are apparently warning off Trump from meeting Putin this month are playing the ultimate cautious game, like diplomats generally do. But if Trump and Putin are in the same building at the Da Nang summit, then they should have a bilateral. That's what big power leaders are supposed to do. The other reservation being put about is that a meeting with Putin will get nowhere. It's true that the US and Russia are at opposite ends of the political spectrum over Syria, for example, and there's little chance of a sudden meeting of minds about a future government in Damascus. But surely there's no harm in trying. There are many examples in the past where personal chemistry between two leaders has helped to broker unexpected deals. Trump is having a terrible time at home but there's no reason why he shouldn't have a good session with Putin and emerge with something of value. Never mind the Robert Mueller Russia investigation, Mr President, use whatever skills and instincts you have to make a difference in Syria. There HAS to be a compromise deal somewhere in the advising brainpower available to both Trump and Putin to make sense of the political anarchy in that poor country which has been ravaged for too long by war and killing. So Syria should be at the top of the agenda, with a close second, North Korea. Russia shares a border with North Korea and has every reason to ensure he regime ruled by Kim Jong-un does not become a fully fledged nuclear weapon power. My view, as outlined in previous blogs, is that Kim will do whatever it takes to get his nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile arsenal primed and ready for launch to deter the US from attacking his nuclear facilities. So, it may be too late for an inspired solution to stop him. But, again, if Trump and Putin and their best nuclear/diplomatic brains can work something out and present a package of measures to Kim, who knows! This is being optimistic, I know, but right now in this deteriorating world, we need a burst of optimism and, my goodness, Trump needs a break from all the flak back home. Much of America and the world think Trump is a walking disaster, but he is the elected president of the United States and has huge power at his fingertips. This Asia trip MUST produce a breakthrough somewhere, and perhaps, just maybe, a Trump/Putin love-in might push things along in the right direction. So go for it, Mr President. Prove to all your detractors that you have the right stuff! My fingers are crossed.