Tuesday 14 November 2017

Trump and the nuclear codes

Congress is suddenly getting jumpy about Trump and nuclear weapons. No, not Kim Jong-un's nukes, Trump's nukes. As US commander-in-chief, he can loose off as many nukes as he wants without consulting Congress, or seeking consensus with Jim Mattis, his Defence Secretary, and HR McMaster, his National Security Adviser. If he is told the US is in mortal danger of an imminent nuclear attack or if he feels the circumstances are right to launch a preempive nuclear strike, then he has the right and the power to make up his own mind. That has been the case with every president since nukes were invented, but the current president has proven to be so unpredictable and so unmanageable that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee decided it was time to discuss the issue. Today's committee meeting is entitled: Authority to Order the Use of Nuclear Weapons. They already know the answer to all their questions - Yes, he can - but the mere fact that they are debating the issue at all is because they are seriously afraid, it seems, that Trump might do something foolish, like order a nuclear attack for the wrong reasons! I think the senators are overdoing the worry bit, but it's certainly prudent for all of us to remember the power that the president of the United States has to "destroy North Korea", as he once threatened to do. You can't actually destroy a whole country unless you use nuclear weapons. Ergo, Trump must have had nukes in mind when he said it. The protocol for launching nuclear weapons was set up solely to take into account the fact that if Russia or China, for whatever reason, decided to attack the US with nuclear weapons in a first-strike launch, the president would have less than 30 minutes to decide what to do before the ICBMs startd crashing down onto American cities. THIRTY MINUTES! That really doesn't give much time for a chat with Jim Mattis, or a lengthy debate in the White House Situation Room, let alone a telephone call with key members of Congress. Thirty minutes become 20 minutes in, well, just ten minutes, and then suddenly the spots on the radar seem to be getting bigger and bigger and closer and closer. So, under those circumstances, the president would have little choice but to launch a mass retaliatory nuclear strike himself and fire off every missile interceptor available. But not even the most paranoid senator, Democrat or Republican, can really think that Trump would want to unleish Armaggedon like a modern-day Dr Strangelove by launching a preemptive strike on some personal whim.Nevertheless, for the uninitiated, here's the procedure that Trump would need to follow: An emergency meeting would be held with key advisers, including Mattis, McMaster, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs and others, and the commander of US Strategic Command would outline the nuclear attack options. With the minutes ticking by, the president would have to absorb all the pros and cons in a matter of moments and, if resolved to launch, whether advised to do so or not, all he would have to do is summon the military officer carrying the so-called nuclear football - an easy process because the officer in question is by his side always. The football which is really a briefcase containing the communications for a nuclear strike would be opened by the aide and presented to Trump. Then he would swiftly search for the codes, contained in a credit-card style plastic device called the "biscuit" which he is supposed to have on his person at all times. The codes would be transmitted to military officers at the Pentagon and Strategic Command, which not only confirm his identity but provide authorisation for a nuclear launch. That's it. In a Hollywood film, the military guys at the Pentagon would refuse to obey the president's orders and by some miracle the world would be saved. In real life, the officers would press the button!

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