Monday 27 November 2017

Could we face nuclear war?

Admiral Mike Mullen, former chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and a very pleasant fellow, has admitted that he is really worried there could be a nuclear war. It's the sort of comment which sends shivers down one's spine. Mullen is retired but it wasn't long ago that he knew all the secrets in the Pentagon and still knows to this day what sort of contingency planning the Defense Department has done in the event of an imminent nuclear attack. In other words, he knows his stuff. He admitted in an interview that the potential for a nuclear war was scary. He was talking about North Korea, envisaging a scenario in which Kim Jong-un, having acquired long-range nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, might feel tempted to use them. He must have thought this through and felt impelled to make his views known. I was Pentagon Correspondent for The Times in Washington when Admiral Mullen was the military chief for the Obama administration, and most of my fellow Pentagon Press Corps colleagues liked and respected him. He was approachable and very quotable. But does that make him right when he says he believes a nuclear war is more possible than it was some years ago? Theoretically his fears are sound. There is no question that a North Korea armed with intercontinental-range nuclear ballistic missiles will make the world a far more dangerous place. But will it be like the Cold War or something totally different? Will the mutual assured destruction in the hands of Trump and Kim Jong-un prevent war, as in the 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s, or invite war? I suspect what is in the back of Mullen's mind are his cncerns about the temperament of President Trump and what he might do if facing a nuclear-armed Kim Jong-un. Mullen was an Obama man, and it doesn't sound, from his interview, that he could ever contemplate being a Trump man. He was even critical of General John Kelly for being what he thought was overly supportive of Trump in his capacity as White House chief of staff. He also imagined that if an order was ever given for US nuclear weapons to be launched it was very likely that such orders WOULD be obeyed, a view running slightly counter to the recent stories when current senior military commanders said an order to launch a nuclear weapon would only be carried out if it was considered to be legal and proportionate. So Mullen's worries appear to be as much about Trump as they are about Kim Jong-un. All very scary!!!

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