Saturday, 13 December 2025

What will Russia do if Trump attacks Venezuela?

Before any US president, or any leader come to that, contemplates a foreign military venture, they have to spend time thinking of the consequences, or potential consequences. Thus, Putin must have calculated that if he invaded Ukraine, the chances of the US and the rest of Nato intervening on the ground to confront Russian troops and drive them back over the border, were remote. He was right about that, but he miscalculated what Joe Biden would do. He certainly can't have imagined that Biden would gather a huge coalition of countries to back Ukraine with weapons, intelligence and cash. As a result of that miscalculation, his war is still continuing and around a million of his fellow countrymen have died or been injured. History will curse Putin. Now Donald Trump must be asking his advisers what Russia and China might do if he decides to launch ground troops into Venezuela to topple the dreadful Nicolas Maduro. Putin supposedly rang Maduor this week to ask if there was anything he needed to confront Trump. We don't know whether President Xi Zinping has made a similar call from Beijing, but I suspect not. The phone call from Putin, I expect, was a gesture but didn't mean very much. I doubt either Russia or China will get heavily involved if there is US action against Venezuela. They will launch a load of rhetoric about the infamy of attacking sovereign countries and the rest of the world will laugh. Xi is probably going to attack Taiwan some time in the next few years, and Putin....well we know about Putin. So, Trump might get away with action against Venezuela without drawing in Russia or China. But will he do it? So far it has been all swagger and threats.

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