Tuesday, 16 December 2025

It's now all down to land concessions in Ukraine

After weeks of non-stop negotiatons involving the US, Europe and Zelensky, it looks like the final ingredient for a peace plan is about land. What, if any, is Zelensky prepared to hand to the Russians without a fight? In other words, will the Ukrainian leader ever be in a position where he will contemplate handing over the rest of the Donbas region, even though his troops still control key defensive positions in Donetsk. He says not. Indeed, he says he would need to hold elections and/or a referendum before any such transaction can be discussed. So, even though land is the one remaining obstacle, it's a huge one and I don't see any likelihood of a resolution to this thorny issue any time in the near future. It's just too sensitive an issue. Why should Putin be handed more land to add to the land his army has seized? Trump's negotiators have talked about demilitarising the section of Donbas still in Ukrainian hands which would mean no Russian troops would be allowed to enter the zone. But Moscow has said Russian police and national guardsmen would need to patrol the area to maintain order. So, obviously, Kyiv has said no to that. And, of course, there is one other Big Issue. Does Putin actually want a ceasefire and peace? This war suits him and his vision for Russia. It has helped him create a war economy in Russia which means he would be better prepared to launch attacks elsewhere if he were so inclined. I fear we are getting to a point where Trump will just say to Zelensky: "We've done our best. Accept the plan, including the land handover arrangement, or else we will leave you to fight on for ever. It's now or never." For the first time, I believe there may well have to be a land-swap of some sort but only because it's driven by Trump. Europe and Kyiv will cry foul. PLEASE BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH. REVIEWERS LOVE IT. CHECK IT OUT ON AMAZON.

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