Sunday, 5 October 2025

Could the war in Gaza end at last?

It has taken very nearly two years to find a formula that might just help to bring the terrible war in Gaza to a close. The second anniversary of Hamas's October 7 atrocity which killed 1,200 Israelis and other nationals and led to the kidnapping of 250 people falls on Tuesday. Could the war come to an end on that day, based on the 20-point peace settlement devised by the Trump administration? The signs are good but also ominous. Hamas has refused to accept dimilitarisation and exit from Gaza, and Israel will never agree to withdrawing all troops from the territory. But there is room for negotiation, and with such momentum as we have at the moment, there has to be a chance that everything will work out. Trump's ultimatum to Hamas is: accept the deal in its entirety or face the full wrath of Israel and a continuation of the bombing, with Trump's blessing. At this stage I can't see the remaining Hamas fighters - 5,000 or so - handing over their weapons and going into voluntary exile, two of the 20 points in Trump's plan. But they know they have been defeated. They may be hanging on inside the ruins of Gaza, but their command and the bulk of their organisation have been eliminated by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). They know that the US under Trump and certainly Israel under Netanyahu are never going to allow Hamas to stay on in Gaza in any form of ruling body. So, eventually, they will have to leave and find Arab countries willing to take them. But if that ever happens, I doubt they will go quietly. There could still be bloody fighting ahead.

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