Sunday, 19 October 2025

Are we any closer to a deal to end the war in Ukraine?

Zelensky left Washington with one message from Donald Trump: you and Putin must bring this terrible war to an end. But, despite planned meetings between high-level American and Russian officials, due very soon, and then the summit between Putin and Trump in Budapest at some point, there is absolutely no indication that the Russian president has changed any of his demands. What he wants today is what he has always wanted - annexation of large chunks of Ukraine, a demilitarised Ukraine, an end to any exzpectation of Ukraine joining Nato and, preferably, a Russian-appointed leader in Kyiv. Even then, he won't move any of his troops out of the occupied regions of Ukraine and any time he likes, he can launch barrages of missiles and drones at Ukraine to try and subjugate the people to his will. Zelensky thought he was going to get Tomahawks from Trump but left Washington empty-handed. So, as usual, everything is going well for Putin. At the summit in Budapest Putin can promise all kinds of things but if he doesn't get exactly what he wants, he won't agree to a ceasefire, or he might agree to a ceasefire but then will instantly accuse Kyiv of violating it and the bombings will restart. The bombings have already restarted in Gaza, so that won't help Trump's ambition to follow up a Gaza triumph with a Ukraine peace settlement. How wonderful it would be if one's natural scepticism actually proves to be misplaced and we have peace in Gaza AND Ukraine.

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