Tuesday, 19 August 2025

What game is Putin really playing?

The one thing that Keir Starmer has got right is that Vladimir Putin doesn't want peace. Well, not peace at any cost. If there is going to be peace in Ukraine, whatever that means, it will be on Putin's terms. Donald Trump is convinced that Putin does want a peace deal and was caught saying so on a hot mic when talking to Emmanuel Macron at the White House gathering yesterday. But Starmer is right, Putin is not interested in a deal. Not yet. He wants to make sure that if and when there is an end to the war, he has everything or most of it, tucked up neatly in a bag, so that Zelensky has nothing left to negotiate with. So, despite all the supposedly promising signs that Trump is putting out, especially his announcement that Putin has agreed to a meeting with Zelensky - maybe in two weeks - the Russian president hasn't changed his position one iota. His message is still the same as it has been ever since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. I have respect for Senator Lindsey Graham, the Republican with a nose for foreign affairs, who claims, rightly in my view, that the only reason Putin asked for the summit with Trump in Alaska was to forestall the US from imposing a massive 500 per cent tarrif on India and others who still buy Russian oil. The 50 per cent tariff already imposed on India persuaded Putin that he needed to do something fast to stop the tariff rising to 500 per cent, a level which is in a bill laid before Congress by Lindsey Graham. It's the old adage, leaders like Putin only come running when put under huge pressure. Putin is scared that if India and maybe China, the two biggest importers of Russian oil, have 500 per cent tariffs put on them, the Russian economy will go down the drain very rapidly. So, very cleverly, he told Trump he was ready to meet for a summit, and it worked. Trump played the summit like a baby, grinning and smiling at everything Putin said and did. Putin got what he wanted. There wasn't even a hint of a 500 per cent tariff on Russia's oil importers. In fact Trump proved to be as good as gold. No "severe consequences" for failing to agree a ceasefire, and suddenly, no talk of ceasefire anymore. Round One definitely went to Putin. Lindsey Graham is right, smash the Russian economy with massive sanctions, then and only then will Putin beg for mercy and do a deal.

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