Sunday, 17 August 2025

Trump has accepted the Ukraine war reality

All the commentators on the so-called summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have come to the conclusion - including me - that the Russian leader got what he wanted and the US president left with nothing except rising concern ringing in the ears of Kyiv and the whole of Europe. But let's look at it another way. Trump is, I assume, a realist and during the summit he must have realised that the Big Deal in which everyone would be happy is just not on the cards. As Trump warned Zelensky at that infamous Oval Office spat, Ukraine has no cards to play. Trump has realised that whatever he does as the US president - ie more sanctions against Russia, more weapons for Ukraine - it's probably not going to make a difference because Putin will carry on the war however much economic suffering he has to endure. After all, he doesn't seem to care that a million Russian troops have now been killed or wounded in the war, so why worry too much about sanctions. He has always got China, North Korea, Iran and India to rely on to keep trading with him. This is the reality that I think hit Trump between the eyes in the summit. The session with Putin lasted three and a half hours but actually you can cut that in half because of the reqwuirement to translate everything as they went along. Putin didn't budge from his red lines. He has never budged from his red lines. While Trump has prevaricated over his stance on Ukraine so many times that no one knows from day to day what he will come with next. But the summit reminded Trump that actually Putin has all the cards and he is not going to end the war unless he gets all the land he wants which is pretty much the whole of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. And, most importantly, Putin is not remotely interested in a ceasefire. What will he gain by a ceasefire? Nothing. So that's why Trump didn't mention the need for a ceasefire, he just focused on the reality which is that the war will not come to an end without Zelensky caving in and agreeing to hand over the land Putin wants. This is the message, loud and clear, which Zelensky is going to get when he meets Trump in the White House tomorrow and it's the message which every European leader is going to get. Accept reality or see the war going on for ever. That's the message Trump must have got from the summit at the US military base outside Anchorage. This presents a huge crisis for Europe. Do they go along with the Trump assessment or continue supporting Ukraine with weapons and diplomatic back-up? If they do the latter, Putin's smile will just get bigger and bigger. BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, A RIVETING READ ACCORDING TO ALL THOSE WHO HAVE BOUGHT IT. GET IT FROM AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES, ETC.

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