Tuesday 3 October 2023

Ukraine looks for alternative as the Western arms flow begins to wobble

Ukraine must have known that at some point its Western allies would start to ask questions about sending weapons and funding "for as long as it takes" for the war against Russia. That time has now come. Thanks to the Republicans in the House of Representatives, aid to Ukraine has not been included in the federal budget passed at one minute to midnight last Friday. The Biden administration will find a way around the blockage and will continue to send weapons, for the moment. But Ukraine's President Zelensky knows that if Trump wins the election in November next year, all bets are off. A number of European countries are also beginning to show weariness in spending so much money on Ukraine when the cost of living in their nations is rising steeply. So Zelensky is now drumming up support for collaboration between Ukraine's defence industry and big western companies to go into joint partnership arrangements, with tanks, armoured vehicles, missiles, drones etc being manufactured in Ukraine with Western technical help. This makes a lot of sense in the long term for Ukraine's future security but what Kyiv can't do is retreat from its offensive against the Russian defensive positions because of concern that the ammunition is going to run out. In other words, the US and the coalition of 50 countries have to maintain weapons supplies throughout the winter so that in the New Year Ukraine will be in a much better military position and putting maximum pressue on Moscow. In the meantime the collaborative industries can start up and if the war continues throughout next year, the Kyiv government will become more self-sufficient provided they have the funds to pay for it.

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