Tuesday 17 October 2023

Israel invasion of Gaza could be the worst possible option

Invading Gaza and destroying Hamas would have been the sole option on Benjamin Netanyahu's to-do list after the atrocities committed by the terrorist-designated organisation which rules Gaza. But the more I think of it the more I feel an invasion followed by occupation for months, maybe years, would be counter-productive and potentially disastrous for Israel. It's probably exactly what Hamas and its backer, Iran, and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon want and it would draw Israel into a much wider regional conflict. The US would then be forced to get involved militarily and all of a sudden there is a full-scale regional war. Hamas will have prepared for an Israeli invasion and they know Gaza and its cramped streets and alleyways better than the Israelis, and, more importantly, they have a vast network underground from where they can launch attacks on Israeli troops. The Hamas military headquarters is under the Dar al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City. That fact alone adds to the immense challenge Israeli troops will face if they want to avoid causing hundreds of civilian casualties. Can you imagine the negative headlines if they besiege the hospital and try to launch an assault on the underground Hamas HQ? But even if Israel were to succeed in destroying much of the Hamas network, occupation of Gaza for any length of time would be a disaster, for military, diplomatic and humanitarian reasons. So, all in all, Netanyahu and his national coalition war cabinet should focus on trying to rescue the 150 or so hostages and leave the invasion force revving its engines on the border as a warning to Hamas of what will happen if they refuse to negotiate the release of the hostages. But I expect this is wishful thinking. Netanyahu has promised a land, sea and air invasion and that's probaby what we're going to get in the next few days. I fear it won't end well.

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